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Independent legal research and commentary

  • Beyond a Reasonable Story: When Motive Becomes Evidence

    Four murder cases, four remarkable theories of motive, and the dangerous difference between telling a convincing story and proving a crime.

    In criminal law, the prosecution must prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

    Or, in England and Wales, make the jury sure of the defendant’s guilt.

    That is quite a demanding standard.

    And rightly so.

    But I’ve been looking at several murder cases recently where the prosecution’s explanation of why somebody committed a crime appears to have been considerably more imaginative than the evidence could justify.

    One involved a father discussing life insurance.

    Another involved an alleged Satanic ritual.

    A third involved a supposed sexual encounter that turned violent.

    And the fourth, rather remarkably, involved a man’s private diary and a comment about another man’s physique.

    All four cases resulted in convictions that were subsequently overturned.

    Which raises an uncomfortable question.

    At what point does a prosecution stop proving what happened and start telling a story about what might have happened?

    Because a convincing motive can be a powerful thing.

    Give a jury a plausible explanation for why somebody would commit murder, and the rest of the evidence may suddenly seem to fit.

    The trouble is that a good story can make unrelated facts appear connected.

    And sometimes the story is wrong.

    1. James Joseph Richardson: Murder for Life Insurance That Didn’t Exist

    Florida, United States — 1967

    In October 1967, seven children in Arcadia, Florida, died after eating food contaminated with the pesticide parathion.

    Their parents, James Joseph Richardson and his wife Annie Mae, were working in an orange grove when the children became ill.

    It was a horrifying crime.

    Seven children, all from the same family, poisoned in a single day.

    Investigators needed to establish who had contaminated their food.

    And attention eventually turned towards their father.

    Why would a man murder his own children?

    The prosecution had an answer.

    Money.

    Richardson had recently discussed purchasing life insurance policies for his family.

    That detail became part of the case against him.

    It suggested that he might have planned to profit from the deaths of his children.

    On the surface, that sounds like a recognisable motive.

    Life insurance fraud has featured in genuine murder cases.

    But there was a rather significant problem.

    Richardson hadn’t actually purchased the policies.

    He couldn’t afford them.

    There was no insurance payout waiting for him.

    And the defence was not told this crucial information during the original proceedings.

    Imagine the difference between these two statements:

    The defendant took out life insurance policies on his children shortly before they were murdered.

    And:

    The defendant discussed buying life insurance but never bought any.

    The first might reasonably attract investigative attention.

    The second is a conversation about financial planning.

    Yet once investigators suspect somebody of murder, even an ordinary conversation can begin to look sinister.

    Richardson was convicted in 1968 and sentenced to death. His sentence was later commuted to life imprisonment.

    He spent more than twenty years behind bars.

    In 1989, his conviction was set aside after a special investigation revealed serious failures to disclose evidence, including information undermining the insurance theory and the credibility of prosecution witnesses.

    The case also raised questions about the children’s babysitter, Betsy Reese, who had served their meal. She was not convicted of the poisonings.

    Richardson’s story illustrates a particularly dangerous form of reasoning.

    Investigators identified a possible motive.

    The motive made Richardson look suspicious.

    And that suspicion helped support a prosecution in which important contradictory information had been withheld.

    But a possible financial incentive is not evidence that somebody administered poison.

    Especially when the supposed financial incentive never actually existed.

    The insurance policy made for a compelling motive. Its absence was rather less convenient for the story.

    2. Garr Keith Hardin and Jeffrey Clark: The Satanic Ritual

    Kentucky, United States — 1992

    In April 1992, nineteen-year-old Rhonda Sue Warford was found murdered in Kentucky.

    She had suffered multiple stab wounds.

    Her death was brutal, and the investigation eventually focused on Garr Keith Hardin and Jeffrey Clark.

    The two men were convicted of her murder in 1995.

    But the prosecution’s theory of motive was extraordinary.

    It suggested that the killing was connected to Satanic worship and ritual sacrifice.

    This was the early 1990s, when public fears about alleged Satanic activity had already influenced parts of American culture and criminal investigation.

    The prosecution argued that Hardin and Clark were involved in occult practices and that Warford’s murder was connected to those activities.

    Among the evidence presented was a bloodstained cloth found in Hardin’s home.

    The prosecution characterised the blood as animal blood associated with ritual sacrifice.

    There was also microscopic hair comparison evidence said to connect Hardin to the victim.

    Now, if you tell a jury that somebody has been involved in Satanic rituals, almost anything unusual can begin to acquire a sinister interpretation.

    A bloodstained cloth is no longer simply a bloodstained cloth.

    It becomes an artefact of a secret ceremony.

    An acquaintance becomes a fellow conspirator.

    And a murder becomes a ritual sacrifice.

    Except the later scientific evidence told a very different story.

    DNA testing established that the blood on the cloth belonged to Hardin himself, consistent with his explanation that he had cut himself.

    Further testing also undermined the hair evidence that had been used to connect him to the crime.

    The case revealed serious problems with investigative conduct and testimony.

    In 2016, the men’s convictions were vacated.

    In 2018, the remaining murder charges were dismissed.

    Both had spent more than twenty years in prison.

    The important lesson isn’t that an unusual motive can never be genuine.

    People do sometimes commit crimes for bizarre reasons.

    The problem arises when the strangeness of a theory becomes a substitute for demonstrating that it is true.

    If the prosecution alleges a ritual murder, it still has to prove the murder and the defendant’s involvement.

    The ritual theory doesn’t get a discount on the burden of proof simply because it sounds dramatic.

    And in this case, some of the evidence used to support the theory was subsequently discredited.

    The prosecution had a story involving Satanic sacrifice. The laboratory eventually had some rather different information about the blood.

    3. Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito: The Sexual Encounter That Became a Murder Theory

    THE TWISTED TALE OF AMANDA KNOX – “First Look” – A limited series inspired by the story of how Amanda Knox was wrongfully convicted for the tragic murder of her roommate Meredith Kercher and her sixteen-year odyssey to set herself free. (Disney/Andrea Miconi) GRACE VAN PATTEN, GIUSEPPE DE DOMENICO

    Perugia, Italy — 2007

    In November 2007, British student Meredith Kercher was murdered in Perugia, Italy.

    She was twenty-one years old.

    Her death became the subject of an enormous international investigation and media spectacle.

    Among those accused were her American flatmate Amanda Knox and Knox’s Italian boyfriend, Raffaele Sollecito.

    The prosecution’s early theories included the suggestion that Kercher’s murder had resulted from a sexual encounter or game that escalated into violence.

    Other proposed explanations involved personal hostility, tensions between flatmates and disputes over money.

    The motive theories shifted as the case progressed.

    Which raises an interesting question.

    If investigators are confident about who committed a murder but cannot settle on why, what exactly is holding their theory together?

    Of course, prosecutors are not generally required to prove a motive as a separate element of murder.

    A person can commit murder for reasons that remain unknown.

    And a changing theory of motive does not, by itself, establish that a defendant is innocent.

    But it can reveal how uncertain the prosecution’s reconstruction of events has become.

    Knox and Sollecito were convicted in 2009.

    Their convictions were overturned in 2011, reinstated following further proceedings, and ultimately annulled by Italy’s highest court in 2015.

    The final judgment identified major investigative failures and serious weaknesses in the evidence linking them to Kercher’s murder.

    Rudy Guede was separately convicted of involvement in her killing.

    What interests me about this case is the relationship between the evidence and the narrative.

    The proposed motive was not simply a detail added after guilt had been established.

    It became part of the attempt to explain how the accused people fitted into the crime.

    And when a prosecution presents a vivid account of events, it can become difficult to distinguish between what has been demonstrated and what has been inferred.

    A supposed sexual encounter can sound like an explanation.

    Personal tensions can sound like motive.

    And a collection of ordinary interactions can begin to resemble a sinister pattern.

    But resemblance is not proof.

    Meredith Kercher’s murder required a reliable investigation, not merely a convincing reconstruction of what might have happened.

    A story about why people might have committed a murder cannot replace evidence that they actually did.

    4. Barri White and Keith Hyatt: The Diary Entry

    Milton Keynes, England — 2000

    Now let’s return to Britain.

    In December 2000, nineteen-year-old Rachel Manning was murdered after a night out in Milton Keynes.

    Her boyfriend, Barri White, was convicted of her murder in 2002.

    His friend Keith Hyatt was convicted of perverting the course of justice, on the allegation that he had helped dispose of Rachel’s body.

    Both men maintained their innocence.

    And this case contains one of the most extraordinary examples of a proposed motive that I’ve encountered.

    In documentary coverage of the case, an account is given of a diary entry supposedly written by Hyatt.

    According to that account, Hyatt had written something along the lines of:

    “Barri has a nice body.”

    The suggestion was that prosecutors had explored the possibility of a romantic or sexual relationship between the two men as part of a proposed motive for Rachel’s murder.

    I haven’t independently verified the exact diary wording or precisely how the alleged relationship was presented at trial, so those details should be treated as a documentary account rather than an established quotation from the proceedings.

    But even taken as described, the reasoning raises an important question.

    What exactly does a comment about another person’s appearance establish?

    Perhaps attraction.

    Perhaps admiration.

    Perhaps a passing observation.

    Perhaps something entirely different.

    Without additional evidence, the words cannot tell us whether a relationship existed.

    And even if a relationship had existed, that would not establish that either man wanted Rachel dead.

    Yet consider how easily a narrative could develop.

    Two men are friends.

    One writes something complimentary about the other’s appearance.

    Investigators suspect a secret relationship.

    The supposed relationship becomes a possible motive.

    And suddenly, a sentence in a private diary is being asked to carry an extraordinary amount of explanatory weight.

    It’s rather like reading somebody’s shopping list and deciding that their purchase of bin bags must have been preparation for disposing of a body.

    The interpretation might be possible in a particular context.

    But possibility is not evidence.

    The Forensic Evidence That Fell Apart

    The diary account wasn’t the central reason the convictions were overturned.

    That distinction matters.

    The original prosecution also relied heavily on forensic evidence suggesting that Rachel’s body had been transported in Hyatt’s van.

    An expert identified microscopic particles found on Rachel’s clothing and on a seat in the vehicle.

    The particles were presented as an unusual combination, supposedly supporting a connection between the body and the van.

    But journalists working on the BBC’s Rough Justice programme investigated the evidence.

    Their work helped expose a fundamental problem.

    The particles were not nearly as distinctive as the original interpretation suggested.

    They could be produced by ordinary disposable cigarette lighters.

    And they were far more common than the jury had been led to believe.

    In other words, the supposed forensic link was considerably less compelling than it had appeared.

    White and Hyatt’s convictions were quashed in 2007.

    White was acquitted at his retrial in 2008.

    Then, in 2013, Shahidul Ahmed was convicted of Rachel Manning’s murder after DNA evidence connected him to the crime.

    The consequences of the original errors were devastating.

    White and Hyatt lost years of their lives.

    Rachel’s family endured a prolonged struggle for justice.

    And the person eventually convicted of her murder remained free for years after the wrong men had been imprisoned.

    This is what makes the case so important.

    The danger wasn’t merely that investigators may have attached too much significance to an ambiguous personal remark.

    It was that a prosecution narrative existed alongside forensic evidence whose apparent significance was later shown to be unreliable.

    A convincing story and an apparently scientific link can reinforce each other.

    Until somebody examines the assumptions.

    And discovers that neither supports the conclusion as confidently as originally claimed.

    A diary entry can tell us what somebody wrote. It cannot, without more, tell us why somebody else was murdered.

    5. Why We Find Motives So Convincing

    What connects these four cases?

    Money.

    Satanism.

    Sex.

    A supposed secret relationship.

    They are very different stories.

    But they all offer something that human beings find difficult to resist.

    An explanation.

    We don’t like unanswered questions.

    When something terrible happens, we want to know why.

    A murder without an obvious motive feels incomplete.

    And once somebody supplies an explanation, our minds begin arranging the available facts around it.

    In software engineering, there’s a familiar danger here.

    Suppose a system crashes.

    A developer notices that the crash occurred shortly after a software update.

    The update becomes the prime suspect.

    Every subsequent investigation is interpreted through that assumption.

    Logs are examined for evidence of the update causing the problem.

    Other possibilities receive less attention.

    Eventually, somebody discovers that the actual fault was a failing hardware component.

    The update was merely a coincidence.

    This is one reason good debugging requires us to distinguish between a hypothesis and a demonstrated cause.

    Criminal investigations face a similar challenge, with vastly greater consequences.

    Investigators develop hypotheses because they have to.

    They cannot investigate every conceivable explanation indefinitely.

    But a hypothesis should guide the search for evidence.

    It should not dictate what the evidence is allowed to mean.

    Once the theory becomes the framework through which every fact is interpreted, contradictory information can begin to look like an inconvenience rather than an opportunity to reconsider.

    That is confirmation bias.

    And when liberty is at stake, it can be catastrophic.

    6. Motive Is Not Proof

    There’s an important legal point worth making.

    Motive evidence is not inherently improper.

    It can be relevant.

    If somebody has threatened a victim, stands to gain financially from their death or has expressed a desire to harm them, those facts may legitimately form part of a prosecution case.

    But motive is not generally an element that must be proved to establish murder.

    And the existence of a possible motive does not establish that the accused committed the offence.

    Plenty of people have reasons to dislike somebody.

    Very few murder them.

    Plenty of people discuss insurance.

    That doesn’t make them poisoners.

    Plenty of people write ambiguous things in diaries.

    That doesn’t make them killers.

    The difficulty is that a motive can feel like the missing piece of a puzzle.

    Once we think we know why, we may become less demanding about the evidence establishing who.

    And that’s precisely backwards.

    A motive may help explain a crime once there is reliable evidence connecting someone to it.

    It should not be used to manufacture that connection.

    7. The Difference Between a Courtroom and a Storytelling Competition

    A courtroom is an unusual place.

    Two sides present competing accounts of events.

    Witnesses speak.

    Documents are introduced.

    Experts explain their findings.

    Lawyers argue about what the evidence means.

    And at the end, somebody must decide whether the relevant legal standard has been met.

    Narrative is unavoidable.

    Human beings understand events through stories.

    A prosecution cannot simply place hundreds of disconnected facts before a jury and hope that meaning emerges by itself.

    But there is a danger when storytelling becomes more persuasive than the underlying evidence.

    A dramatic motive may be memorable.

    An unusual coincidence may be intriguing.

    An ambiguous remark may sound suspicious.

    None of those qualities makes something true.

    A jury should not be asked to choose the most entertaining explanation.

    It should be asked to determine whether the prosecution has proved the defendant’s guilt.

    That requires something more demanding than narrative coherence.

    It requires reliable evidence.

    And it requires the willingness to recognise when the story doesn’t fit.

    Conclusion: Beyond a Reasonable Story

    James Joseph Richardson was said to have a financial motive involving life insurance policies he never bought.

    Garr Keith Hardin and Jeffrey Clark were accused of a murder supposedly connected to Satanic ritual, supported by forensic claims later discredited.

    Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito faced shifting theories about the circumstances and motive behind Meredith Kercher’s murder before being definitively acquitted of it.

    And Barri White and Keith Hyatt were wrongly convicted in a case where an alleged relationship formed part of the reported narrative, while the supposed forensic link to Rachel Manning was eventually dismantled.

    These cases do not establish that every prosecutor deliberately invented a story.

    Nor do they mean that motive evidence should be excluded from criminal trials.

    They demonstrate something more subtle.

    A theory can become so compelling that people begin treating it as though it has already been proved.

    And when that happens, ordinary details acquire extraordinary meanings.

    A conversation becomes a financial plot.

    A bloodstained cloth becomes evidence of ritual sacrifice.

    Personal tensions become a murder scenario.

    A passing remark becomes a secret relationship.

    The danger is not imagination itself.

    Investigators need imagination to consider possibilities.

    The danger is forgetting where imagination ends and evidence begins.

    Because the prosecution may have explained why somebody could have committed a murder.

    But the question a criminal court must answer is whether it has proved that they did.

    Beyond a reasonable doubt is a standard of proof. Beyond a reasonable story is not.

  • When Exoneration Backfires

    How one man’s later crime can cast a shadow over people still fighting to prove their innocence.

    Monday, 19 October 2026

    I’m still waiting for a reply from the Single Justice Service.

    At this point, waiting has become something of a recurring theme in my dealings with the justice system.

    I’ve made enquiries, obtained account references and supplied information in an attempt to establish the details of historical court proceedings associated with my name.

    And now I wait.

    There’s only so much time you can spend checking for an email that hasn’t arrived, so I did what any sensible person might do.

    I started scrolling through YouTube.

    Somewhere between the usual recommendations, I came across the case of a man called Shaurn Thomas.

    And what began as a little casual viewing turned into something considerably more troubling.

    Because I’ve also been thinking about cases here in Britain involving prisoners whose convictions I believe deserve serious reconsideration.

    People who maintain their innocence.

    People who may have spent years trying to get somebody to listen.

    People who, if their convictions are eventually overturned, might simply want to go home and get on with whatever remains of their lives.

    And I couldn’t help wondering whether a case like Thomas’s, even on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, could make that struggle more difficult.

    Not necessarily through any change in the law.

    But through something much harder to measure.

    Public confidence.

    1. Shaurn Thomas: The First Murder Conviction

    In November 1990, a Philadelphia businessman named Domingo Martinez was murdered during a robbery.

    Shaurn Thomas, who was sixteen at the time of the killing, was eventually convicted in connection with the crime.

    In 1994, he received a life sentence.

    Thomas maintained that he had not committed the murder.

    He said he had been at a juvenile detention facility at the relevant time, following his arrest in connection with an unrelated incident.

    That was an alibi which, if properly established, could have fundamentally changed the case against him.

    But his conviction stood.

    For years.

    Then decades.

    Eventually, lawyers working with the Pennsylvania Innocence Project began examining the case.

    They uncovered serious problems, including evidence relevant to Thomas’s alibi and concerns about the testimony used against him.

    In 2017, his conviction was overturned and the prosecution subsequently dismissed the charges.

    Thomas walked free after approximately twenty-four years in prison.

    It was the kind of case that demonstrates why post-conviction review matters.

    The original verdict had been reached.

    The appeals process had failed to correct it for years.

    But further investigation eventually exposed sufficient problems for the conviction to be set aside.

    Philadelphia later settled Thomas’s civil lawsuit for approximately $4.1 million.

    For somebody who had lost so much of his adult life to imprisonment, there was finally an opportunity to start again.

    Or so it appeared.

    2. The Second Murder

    In January 2023, a man named Akeem Edwards was shot and killed in Philadelphia.

    He was thirty-eight years old.

    Thomas was subsequently charged in connection with his death.

    And in December 2024, Thomas pleaded guilty to third-degree murder and related offences.

    According to the prosecution’s account, the killing arose from a dispute over a $1,200 drug debt.

    The contrast was extraordinary.

    A man whose previous murder conviction had been overturned, who had received millions of dollars in compensation and whose release had been associated with the work of innocence campaigners, had admitted responsibility for killing another person.

    It is a deeply disturbing story.

    And we shouldn’t allow the controversy surrounding Thomas to obscure the person who died.

    Akeem Edwards had a family.

    He had people who loved him.

    His death was not merely an unfortunate complication in somebody else’s narrative of exoneration.

    It was a murder, and Thomas admitted his guilt.

    But the story also creates an uncomfortable question.

    What happens when somebody who has been recognised as wrongfully convicted subsequently commits a serious crime?

    Does it change how we think about the original case?

    And, perhaps more importantly, does it change how we think about everybody else who says they’ve been wrongly convicted?

    3. Two Crimes, Two Separate Questions

    This is where I think we need to be particularly careful.

    Thomas’s guilty plea in the killing of Akeem Edwards does not establish that he committed the murder of Domingo Martinez in 1990.

    Those are two different crimes.

    They involved different victims, different evidence and different proceedings.

    The fact that somebody commits a crime in 2023 cannot, by itself, prove what they did or did not do in 1990.

    It might affect how people perceive their character.

    It might influence public opinion.

    But it does not repair the evidential problems that caused the earlier conviction to be overturned.

    There is also a distinction between overturning a conviction and conclusively proving every detail of a person’s innocence.

    Thomas’s original case involved serious concerns about the reliability of the conviction. Prosecutors agreed it should be vacated and declined to retry him, although they did not claim every question about the original killing had been definitively answered.

    Those distinctions matter.

    The justice system should not require us to decide whether somebody is a good person before examining whether their conviction is safe.

    Nor should a later crime automatically validate an earlier prosecution.

    A conviction has to stand or fall on the evidence relevant to that conviction.

    Anything else risks turning justice into a character assessment conducted with hindsight.

    4. The Problem for People Still Claiming Innocence

    This is the part of the story that concerns me most.

    Imagine somebody sitting in a British prison today.

    They maintain that they didn’t commit the crime for which they were convicted.

    Perhaps they have been trying for years to obtain a review.

    Perhaps there are concerns about forensic evidence, witness testimony, disclosure failures or the way their trial was conducted.

    Perhaps those concerns are well founded.

    Perhaps they aren’t.

    The point is that they deserve to be examined on their merits.

    Now imagine a member of the public reading about Shaurn Thomas.

    They see that he was released after a murder conviction was overturned.

    They see that he received millions of dollars.

    And then they see that he subsequently admitted to another murder.

    It’s not difficult to imagine the reaction.

    So much for exoneration.

    They let him out, gave him millions, and look what happened.

    That reaction is understandable at an emotional level.

    But it becomes dangerous when it turns into a general assumption about other cases.

    Because the next person seeking exoneration is not Shaurn Thomas.

    Their evidence is not his evidence.

    Their conviction is not his conviction.

    And their future conduct cannot be predicted simply by looking at what another person did after release.

    I cannot establish that Thomas’s case has caused any particular British appeal to fail or any specific innocence campaign to lose support.

    That would require evidence I don’t have.

    But I do worry about the possibility that high-profile stories like this influence the atmosphere in which other claims are heard.

    Not necessarily in a courtroom.

    Perhaps in the press.

    Perhaps among potential supporters.

    Perhaps in the minds of people deciding whether a prisoner deserves another chance to have their evidence examined.

    And perhaps even in the willingness of ordinary people to believe that miscarriages of justice happen at all.

    5. Britain Has Its Own Reasons to Take Wrongful Convictions Seriously

    We don’t need to look to America to find examples of serious failures in criminal justice.

    Consider the case of Rachel Manning, who was murdered in Milton Keynes in December 2000.

    Barri White was convicted of her murder, while Keith Hyatt was convicted of perverting the course of justice.

    Both convictions were eventually quashed.

    White was acquitted at a retrial in 2008.

    In 2013, Shahidul Ahmed was convicted of Rachel Manning’s murder.

    The original investigation and prosecution had relied in part on forensic interpretations that later came under serious challenge.

    It’s an example of how a conviction can appear secure until somebody examines the assumptions beneath the evidence.

    And it reminds us why a criminal justice system needs mechanisms for correcting mistakes.

    I have been thinking about cases like this, and about other prisoners in Britain whose claims of innocence I find troubling.

    But I also recognise the limits of what I can know from documentaries, published reports and material available to the public.

    Believing that a conviction may be unsafe is not the same thing as proving that the person convicted is innocent.

    That’s precisely why proper investigation matters.

    We should be neither automatically credulous nor automatically dismissive.

    We should examine the evidence.

    And if the evidence reveals a serious problem, we should be prepared to reconsider the verdict.

    Even when doing so is uncomfortable.

    6. Exoneration Is Not a Certificate of Good Character

    Perhaps this is the most important distinction in the entire story.

    When somebody’s conviction is overturned, the legal system is addressing a particular prosecution.

    It is not issuing a guarantee that the person will never commit a crime.

    It is not declaring that they possess exceptional moral character.

    And it is certainly not promising that the rest of their life will be free from mistakes.

    People who have been wrongfully convicted are still people.

    Some will rebuild their lives successfully.

    Some will struggle.

    Some may commit offences later.

    None of those possibilities makes it acceptable to imprison someone for a crime that has not been properly proved against them.

    We should also be cautious about explaining Thomas’s later actions.

    His lawyers pointed to the effects of prolonged imprisonment and the difficulties of adjusting to life after release.

    Those difficulties are real concerns for people leaving prison after many years.

    But we cannot simply assume that his wrongful imprisonment caused him to kill Akeem Edwards.

    An explanation requires evidence.

    And even a credible explanation would not erase responsibility for the killing.

    We can acknowledge the damage done by an unsafe conviction while also recognising the harm a person subsequently causes.

    Both things can be true.

    7. The Unfair Burden of Being the Perfect Exoneree

    There’s another problem here.

    When somebody is released after a wrongful conviction, we often expect a particular sort of story.

    The person emerges from prison.

    They embrace their family.

    They express gratitude to their lawyers.

    They begin rebuilding their life.

    Perhaps they become an advocate for criminal justice reform.

    It’s a story that audiences understand.

    And when it happens, it’s genuinely encouraging.

    But what happens when the person doesn’t fit that narrative?

    What if they are angry?

    What if they struggle with relationships?

    What if they find ordinary life difficult?

    What if they make poor decisions?

    We shouldn’t confuse the moral appeal of an exoneration story with the legal basis for overturning a conviction.

    A person doesn’t have to become an inspirational public speaker to deserve freedom from an unsafe conviction.

    They don’t have to be likeable.

    They don’t have to be articulate.

    They don’t even have to be somebody we’d particularly want to spend time with.

    They have to be entitled, under the law and the evidence, to the remedy they seek.

    That is a much less romantic standard.

    But it’s a much more important one.

    8. Meanwhile, I’m Still Waiting for an Email

    My own dealings with the justice system are obviously very different from the cases I’ve been discussing.

    I’m not comparing an administrative enquiry about historical court records with spending decades in prison for murder.

    The stakes are not remotely the same.

    But these experiences have made me think more carefully about how difficult it can be to challenge or even understand what a legal system has done.

    Sometimes the first obstacle isn’t persuading somebody that a decision was wrong.

    It’s finding the records.

    Establishing which court dealt with the matter.

    Identifying the relevant proceedings.

    Working out who has the authority to provide an answer.

    And then waiting for that answer to arrive.

    If navigating a relatively limited enquiry can become complicated, I can only imagine the persistence required to challenge a serious conviction after years in prison.

    Of course, imagination is not evidence.

    But it is a reason to take the problem seriously.

    For somebody who maintains their innocence, delay is not merely an administrative inconvenience.

    It can mean another birthday in prison.

    Another Christmas.

    Another year in which their family grows older while they remain behind bars.

    And if their conviction is eventually overturned, no compensation can give them those years back.

    They may not want to become a public symbol.

    They may not want to campaign for the rest of their lives.

    They may simply want to go home.

    9. When Exoneration Backfires

    So does the Shaurn Thomas case mean exoneration has backfired?

    Not in the sense that his later crime makes the earlier conviction valid.

    It doesn’t.

    And not in the sense that we have established a measurable negative effect on other prisoners seeking to overturn their convictions.

    We haven’t.

    But it does present a risk.

    When one person’s story becomes highly visible, it can start to stand in for a much larger group of people who have nothing to do with that person’s actions.

    One former prisoner’s later crime can become a convenient argument against trusting anybody who claims to have been wrongfully convicted.

    And that’s a mistake.

    The legal system should be capable of correcting an unsafe conviction without demanding a guarantee about the person’s future behaviour.

    It should also be capable of holding that same person accountable if they later commit another crime.

    Those responsibilities are not contradictory.

    They are both part of administering justice.

    Akeem Edwards deserved justice for his murder.

    Domingo Martinez deserved a reliable investigation into his.

    And people still imprisoned under convictions that may be unsafe deserve a fair opportunity to have their cases examined.

    None of those obligations cancels out the others.

    Conclusion: Innocence Is Not a Group Membership

    I started today waiting for a reply from the Single Justice Service.

    I ended up thinking about a murder case in Philadelphia, the British appeals system and people who may still be sitting in prison for crimes they didn’t commit.

    That’s quite a journey for an afternoon spent scrolling through YouTube.

    But perhaps it comes down to one simple principle.

    Every conviction should be judged on its own evidence.

    We shouldn’t preserve an unsafe conviction because somebody else, somewhere else, committed a crime after being released.

    We shouldn’t ignore a murder because the person responsible was previously wrongfully convicted.

    And we shouldn’t require people seeking exoneration to carry the burden of proving that every other exoneree will behave well for the rest of their lives.

    Shaurn Thomas is responsible for his own actions.

    Other prisoners are not responsible for his.

    And the people who genuinely have been wrongfully convicted shouldn’t have to wait for the world to find a perfect exoneree before taking their claims seriously.

    An exoneration is not a promise about the future. It is an obligation to confront the past.

  • Lawyer or Solicitor? A Transatlantic Crisis of Legal Vocabulary

    Or why the simplest word isn’t always the most precise.

    When I lived in America, I noticed something rather interesting about the way people talked about the legal profession.

    They called lawyers lawyers.

    Sometimes they called them attorneys.

    But they didn’t generally distinguish between solicitors and barristers in the way we do in England and Wales.

    If someone needed legal advice, they called a lawyer.

    If someone was being prosecuted, they hired a lawyer.

    If someone threatened to sue them, they announced that their lawyer would be in touch.

    Simple.

    Back in Britain, we have a rather more elaborate vocabulary.

    You might need a solicitor.

    Or a barrister.

    Or perhaps a solicitor-advocate.

    And before you know it, a conversation about getting legal advice has turned into a small examination on the structure of the English legal profession.

    Which raises a question.

    Why does the word lawyer sound so immediately understandable, while solicitor sounds like something you ought to have studied before you’re allowed to use it?

    1. The Beautiful Simplicity of the Word Lawyer

    Let’s examine the word itself.

    Lawyer.

    It sounds like exactly what it means.

    A person who works with the law.

    You don’t need to know anything about the legal profession to appreciate the basic idea.

    Silicon Valley (HBO)

    We have gardeners who work in gardens, builders who build things and lawyers who work with the law.

    English doesn’t always make life this straightforward, so perhaps we should appreciate the occasion.

    Now consider solicitor.

    What exactly does a solicitor solicit?

    Clients?

    Advice?

    Documents?

    The word doesn’t immediately reveal the profession it describes.

    In fact, its history is rather interesting.

    Solicitor comes through French from a Latin root associated with urging, prompting or setting something in motion.

    In medieval English, it could describe someone who acted on another person’s behalf or conducted their affairs.

    That makes considerably more sense once you know the history.

    A solicitor was somebody who pursued matters for someone else.

    The trouble is that this explanation requires knowing the history.

    The word lawyer, meanwhile, simply gets on with the job.

    2. Why Britain Has Solicitors and Barristers

    England and Wales developed a legal profession with distinct roles.

    Historically, solicitors dealt extensively with clients, legal paperwork, transactions and the preparation of cases.

    Barristers specialised in advocacy, particularly in the higher courts, and in providing specialist legal opinions.

    The distinction grew out of centuries of institutional development rather than somebody sitting down one afternoon and designing the most understandable legal system imaginable.

    And the boundaries are not as rigid today as the traditional description might suggest.

    Solicitors can appear in courts and tribunals, with suitably qualified solicitor-advocates able to exercise rights of audience in higher courts.

    Barristers can, in appropriate circumstances, accept instructions directly from members of the public.

    Nevertheless, the two professions remain separately regulated and retain distinct professional identities.

    So the word solicitor does communicate something important.

    It identifies a particular legal qualification.

    It isn’t merely a more elaborate synonym for lawyer.

    And that’s where the British terminology has a genuine advantage.

    It tells us more precisely what sort of legal professional we’re dealing with.

    Assuming, of course, we already know what a solicitor is.

    3. America: Everybody’s Lawyer, Nobody’s Solicitor?

    The United States largely uses a different vocabulary.

    The words lawyer and attorney are commonly used for people licensed to practise law.

    An American lawyer might advise clients, prepare documents, negotiate settlements and represent people in court, subject to the rules governing their practice and jurisdiction.

    The familiar English division between solicitor and barrister isn’t generally how the American profession is organised.

    That doesn’t mean American lawyers all perform identical work.

    Far from it.

    They specialise in criminal defence, family law, immigration, commercial litigation, intellectual property and countless other fields.

    But their professional titles don’t usually reproduce the English solicitor-barrister distinction.

    There is, however, a lovely linguistic complication.

    America hasn’t entirely abandoned the word solicitor.

    It survives in certain official titles, most famously the Solicitor General, who represents the federal government’s interests before the United States Supreme Court.

    And in everyday American English, a solicitor might also be somebody knocking on your door trying to sell you something.

    Which could produce a rather unfortunate misunderstanding if you announced that a solicitor had arrived at your house.

    In England, you might be expecting legal advice.

    In America, you might be expecting somebody to sell you double glazing.

    4. Precision Versus Understanding

    Here’s where the question becomes more serious.

    In England and Wales, solicitor is a protected professional title.

    Someone cannot simply declare themselves a solicitor without being entitled to use that description.

    The term lawyer, however, does not have the same legally protected status.

    According to the Solicitors Regulation Authority, the word has no defined meaning in UK law and does not, by itself, guarantee that the person using it holds a regulated professional qualification.

    That is an important distinction.

    Imagine two people advertising legal assistance.

    One describes herself as a solicitor.

    The other describes himself as a lawyer.

    To somebody unfamiliar with the legal profession, both descriptions might sound equally reassuring.

    But they don’t necessarily communicate the same regulatory status.

    A solicitor’s professional standing can be checked against the relevant register.

    The generic title lawyer alone does not establish equivalent credentials.

    Suddenly, the word that seemed unnecessarily complicated has a very practical purpose.

    Solicitor is less intuitive, but more precise. Lawyer is more intuitive, but potentially less informative.

    Neither word is universally better.

    They solve different communication problems.

    5. When Professional Language Becomes a Barrier

    This reminds me of something I’ve been encountering while trying to navigate the English justice system.

    There is an enormous difference between a system being technically correct and a system being understandable to the people who need to use it.

    A court employee might know exactly what a URN is.

    A solicitor might immediately recognise the distinction between a case number and an enforcement account number.

    A barrister might understand the procedural implications of a particular court order without giving it a second thought.

    But an ordinary member of the public may not know any of those things.

    And why should they?

    Most people don’t spend their lives studying legal procedure.

    They encounter it when something has gone wrong, when a dispute arises, or when they need professional assistance.

    That is probably the worst possible moment to discover that the language itself requires an introduction.

    The legal profession needs technical vocabulary.

    Precision matters when people’s rights, liberty and property are at stake.

    But precision should not become an excuse for making explanations unnecessarily difficult.

    A good professional can use the technically correct term and then explain what it means.

    A good public service should do the same.

    6. A Software Engineer’s Perspective

    In software engineering, we spend considerable time thinking about interfaces.

    An interface is how one system communicates with another.

    And a good interface should communicate enough information for its user to understand what is happening without requiring intimate knowledge of everything underneath.

    Imagine a website with two buttons.

    One says:

    Submit.

    The other says:

    Execute asynchronous transaction persistence operation.

    Both might ultimately do the same thing.

    One tells the user what they need to know.

    The other tells the user that the developer has recently discovered a thesaurus.

    Legal terminology can present a similar problem.

    A specialist term may be perfectly accurate within the profession but confusing to somebody outside it.

    That doesn’t mean we should abolish technical language.

    It means we should design explanations around the audience.

    Perhaps lawyer is the useful public-facing category, while solicitor and barrister provide the necessary professional detail.

    We already do something similar in other industries.

    A person might describe themselves as an engineer before explaining that they specialise in software, civil engineering or electronics.

    The broad term establishes the general field.

    The specific term explains the expertise.

    Why shouldn’t legal communication work in much the same way?

    7. Should We Just Call Everybody a Lawyer?

    Not quite.

    There’s a risk in simplifying professional language too far.

    If we treated lawyer, solicitor and barrister as interchangeable, we could obscure meaningful differences in qualifications, regulation and the services someone is authorised to provide.

    And when someone is paying for legal advice, those differences matter.

    But I do think there’s a case for leading with the language people naturally understand.

    For example:

    I’m a lawyer, qualified as a solicitor in England and Wales.

    That tells somebody two useful things.

    First, the person works in the legal profession.

    Second, they hold a specific professional qualification.

    It’s understandable without sacrificing precision.

    And it doesn’t require the listener to have completed a preliminary course in English legal history.

    So, What Should We Call Them?

    Perhaps the answer depends on what we’re trying to communicate.

    If I’m discussing the legal profession generally, lawyer seems perfectly sensible.

    If I’m identifying a particular qualification in England and Wales, solicitor or barrister is more informative.

    And if I’m speaking to somebody who has never encountered the British legal system, I might use both.

    Because the purpose of language is not merely to demonstrate that the speaker understands something.

    It’s to help the listener understand it too.

    That’s a lesson that extends far beyond the legal profession.

    Our institutions accumulate specialised vocabulary over centuries.

    Sometimes that vocabulary preserves important distinctions.

    Sometimes it preserves historical accidents.

    And sometimes it simply makes ordinary people feel as though they’ve walked into a conversation that began several hundred years before they arrived.

    The best legal language should be precise enough to protect people and simple enough to help them.

    After all, a lawyer is someone who works with the law.

    A solicitor is a particular kind of lawyer.

    And explaining that distinction shouldn’t require another lawyer.

  • What Came First: The Law or the Lawyer?

    What came first: the law or the lawyer?

    The law.

    There. Mystery solved.

    Thank you for reading.

    Unfortunately, having answered the question in considerably less time than it takes to get through to the Single Justice Service, I now find myself with an entire blog post still to write.

    So perhaps we should investigate.

    Because the more interesting question isn’t simply which came first. It’s how we arrived at a world in which ordinary people may need specialist assistance just to understand the rules governing their own lives.

    Who settled disputes before lawyers existed?

    Who decided whether someone had stolen a goat?

    Who determined whether a field belonged to one farmer or another?

    And if somebody committed murder, who had the authority to decide what happened next?

    Today, we imagine justice taking place inside a courtroom, involving a judge, barristers, solicitors, evidence, witnesses and a considerable quantity of paperwork.

    But these features didn’t arrive together.

    The history of law is, in many ways, the history of societies trying to solve the same problems with increasingly elaborate machinery.

    Let’s start at the beginning.

    1. Ancient Mesopotamia: The Law Before the Lawyer

    Approximately 2000–500 BCE

    Thousands of years before anybody could qualify as a solicitor, the inhabitants of ancient Mesopotamia were already arguing about property, debts, inheritance, marriage and compensation for injuries.

    Human nature, it seems, has remained remarkably consistent.

    The famous Code of Hammurabi, produced in Babylon during the eighteenth century BCE, is one of the best-known surviving collections of ancient laws.

    It dealt with subjects ranging from commercial transactions to family obligations and physical injuries.

    But we shouldn’t imagine it functioning like a modern statute book, consulted by barristers in a courtroom.

    Ancient Mesopotamian justice operated through rulers, officials, judges, elders and local institutions. Written contracts, witnesses and sworn statements could play important roles in resolving disputes.

    There were people knowledgeable about legal practices, including scribes who prepared documents, but there was no modern profession divided into solicitors and barristers.

    If you had a dispute, you might appear before local authorities and present your account.

    You didn’t necessarily need a lawyer.

    You did, however, need to understand the social hierarchy.

    Ancient legal systems often distinguished between people according to status. The penalties and protections available to one person were not necessarily available to another.

    So although law existed, equality before the law was far from guaranteed.

    This reveals something important.

    The earliest legal systems were not simply machines for delivering justice. They were also instruments for organising society and preserving authority.

    Law came first.

    Fairness was still a work in progress.

    2. Classical Athens: The Citizens Become the Court

    Fifth and fourth centuries BCE

    Now we travel to Athens, where the ancient Greeks developed a particularly interesting approach to justice.

    Instead of relying entirely on a professional judiciary, classical Athens used large juries of citizens.

    And by large, I mean genuinely large.

    Some cases were heard by hundreds of jurors.

    Imagine trying to persuade five hundred people that your neighbour had stolen your goat.

    You would certainly want to prepare your speech.

    In Athens, litigants were generally expected to present their own cases.

    There were no barristers in the modern English sense, although professional speechwriters, known as logographers, could prepare arguments for people who could afford their services.

    In other words, you couldn’t necessarily hire somebody to stand up and argue for you, but you might hire somebody to write something impressive for you to say.

    An early version of outsourcing, perhaps.

    The system reflected Athenian ideas about citizen participation, but we must be careful with the word citizen.

    Women, enslaved people and many residents who lacked citizenship were excluded from equal participation in the political and judicial system.

    Democracy had arrived, but its membership policy was rather restrictive.

    Still, Athens gives us an interesting stage in the evolution of law.

    The people deciding cases weren’t necessarily professional legal experts.

    They were members of the civic community.

    And the people presenting arguments weren’t necessarily lawyers.

    They were the people involved in the dispute.

    That raises a question which still matters today:

    Should understanding and participating in justice be an ordinary civic responsibility, or something reserved for specialists?

    3. Ancient Rome: The Lawyer Begins to Emerge

    Approximately 200 BCE–400 CE

    Rome complicates the story.

    Which, given what Roman law eventually became, seems appropriate.

    As Roman society expanded, so did the complexity of its legal arrangements.

    There were disputes over contracts, property, inheritance, citizenship, commercial transactions and the responsibilities of public officials.

    And increasingly, people developed specialised knowledge about how those rules worked.

    Roman jurists studied and interpreted legal principles. Advocates helped people present arguments. Patrons could assist clients in navigating legal and political institutions.

    These weren’t identical to modern solicitors and barristers, but we can begin to recognise familiar professional functions.

    Somebody understands the rules.

    Somebody else has a problem.

    The person with the problem seeks assistance from the person who understands the rules.

    The legal profession begins to take shape.

    And with it comes a rather interesting development.

    The more sophisticated the law becomes, the more valuable legal expertise becomes.

    That can be a good thing.

    Specialists can challenge unfair accusations, interpret complicated rules and help people defend their rights.

    But specialisation also creates dependence.

    A system designed to organise society can gradually become difficult for ordinary members of that society to navigate without professional help.

    Rome didn’t invent that problem.

    It certainly helped demonstrate how far legal complexity could develop.

    4. Medieval London: When the City Became Its Own Legal System

    Approximately the twelfth to fifteenth centuries

    Let’s travel to London, several centuries before anybody could telephone HMCTS and spend half the morning listening to hold music.

    Medieval London was already a complicated place.

    Merchants traded goods. Landlords collected rents. Apprentices learned trades. Families argued over inheritance. People accused one another of theft, assault and other offences.

    Somebody had to settle these disputes.

    And there wasn’t one convenient institution called The Legal System into which every problem could be deposited.

    London had its own civic institutions, including the Court of Husting, whose history stretches back to the Anglo-Saxon period.

    By the Middle Ages, the City’s aldermen, sheriffs and other officials exercised important judicial and administrative responsibilities.

    The Court of Husting became particularly associated with matters involving property and inheritance.

    Other courts handled different categories of dispute.

    There were also royal courts, local customs, ecclesiastical jurisdictions and developing common-law procedures.

    If that sounds like overlapping institutional responsibilities, that’s because it was.

    Some aspects of medieval London are beginning to sound uncomfortably familiar.

    Enter Newgate and the Old Bailey

    Newgate became one of London’s most notorious prisons.

    The area around it would eventually become closely associated with the Old Bailey and the administration of criminal justice.

    But we should be careful not to imagine today’s Central Criminal Court simply transported backwards into medieval London.

    The modern building didn’t exist.

    Nor did the modern Crown Court.

    The courts, their jurisdictions and their procedures developed over centuries.

    The surviving published Old Bailey Proceedings begin in 1674, well after the medieval period.

    Nevertheless, the underlying problem remained consistent.

    London needed institutions capable of hearing accusations, settling disputes, determining guilt and enforcing judgments.

    And as the rules became more elaborate, people who understood those rules became increasingly valuable.

    By medieval times, England had already developed recognisable legal practitioners, and the Inns of Court became important centres of legal education and professional life.

    The lawyer had well and truly arrived.

    The law, meanwhile, was becoming a career.

    5. London Today: The Old Bailey and the Price of Complexity

    Twenty-first century

    Now let’s return to London in 2026.

    Walk along the Old Bailey in the City of London and you’ll find the Central Criminal Court, crowned by a golden figure of Justice holding her sword and scales.

    The present courthouse opened in 1907, although criminal trials in the area have a much longer history.

    In 1834, the Old Bailey was formally established as the Central Criminal Court.

    Today, serious criminal cases are heard there under an extensive framework of legislation, evidence rules, procedural safeguards and rights of appeal.

    Judges direct proceedings and interpret the law.

    Barristers present cases and challenge evidence.

    Solicitors advise clients and prepare cases.

    Juries determine questions of fact in trials where they are required.

    And defendants have legal protections that would have been unfamiliar, or entirely unavailable, in many earlier societies.

    That is progress worth recognising.

    We shouldn’t romanticise ancient courts simply because their procedures were less complicated.

    A simpler system isn’t necessarily a fairer one.

    The development of legal safeguards has helped protect people from arbitrary punishment, unreliable accusations and abuses of authority.

    But there’s an uncomfortable complication.

    Have We Made Justice Too Complicated to Navigate?

    In ancient Athens, a citizen might be expected to stand up and argue his own case.

    In medieval London, disputes could be handled by civic officials familiar with local customs.

    Today, even identifying the correct court, prosecuting authority or procedure can require specialist knowledge.

    I recently spent several hours contacting government departments in an attempt to trace historical court proceedings associated with MS90 endorsements recorded against me.

    Eventually, an enforcement team supplied account references.

    The Single Justice Service then asked for identifying information, including the prosecuting authority and offence date.

    Reasonable questions, perhaps.

    Except that those are among the details I am trying to establish.

    I am asking the system to identify the proceedings.

    The system is asking me to identify the proceedings so that it can assist.

    There’s something almost historically poetic about it.

    Thousands of years ago, people could bring disputes before elders.

    Today, I have an account reference, an email address and six questions to answer.

    And I’m still trying to find the court record.

    The Old Bailey’s Digital Irony

    Here’s something particularly interesting.

    The Old Bailey Proceedings Online provides searchable accounts of nearly 198,000 criminal trials from 1674 to 1913.

    Researchers, historians and members of the public can explore centuries of London’s criminal justice history from a computer.

    The Open University was among the institutions involved in developing this remarkable digital resource.

    Think about that.

    We can search accounts of criminal trials conducted in London during the seventeenth century.

    Yet tracing the records of a much more recent case can still involve several telephone calls, different departments and a degree of investigative persistence.

    There may be perfectly legitimate reasons for that difference, including privacy restrictions, fragmented record systems and the different purposes for which the information was collected.

    A historical public archive is not the same thing as a live court administration system.

    Nevertheless, the contrast is striking.

    It demonstrates what thoughtful digitisation can achieve.

    And it invites us to ask why navigating current administrative processes can sometimes feel more difficult than exploring the distant past.

    So, What Came First?

    The law.

    We established that at the beginning.

    But the journey from ancient Mesopotamia to the Old Bailey reveals something more interesting.

    Lawyers didn’t invent the need for justice.

    They emerged as societies developed increasingly elaborate rules, institutions and methods of resolving disputes.

    And legal specialisation brought genuine benefits.

    It created expertise, improved representation and helped develop procedures intended to protect people from unfair treatment.

    But it also contributed to a world in which understanding the law, and sometimes even locating the right part of the legal system, can become a specialist task.

    That leaves us with a question for the present.

    Have we made justice more sophisticated without always making it more accessible?

    Perhaps the next great improvement to the legal system won’t involve inventing another rule.

    Perhaps it will involve making the rules, the records and the institutions easier for ordinary people to understand.

    After all, the law existed before lawyers.

    And presumably, somewhere along the way, people managed to settle disputes without being asked to provide a case reference they were contacting the court to obtain.

    The law came first. The lawyer came later. And somewhere along the way, we invented the help desk.

  • Six Questions and No Answers: When the Justice System Needs a Help Desk

    15 October 2026

    On Monday, I spent approximately four hours trying to establish the details of historical MS90 convictions recorded against me.

    I telephoned one department, waited on hold, explained the situation, was directed elsewhere, waited on hold again, explained the situation again, and repeated the process until I began to wonder whether I was participating in an elaborate government-funded endurance experiment.

    Eventually, an enforcement team was able to locate historical information and provide two account references.

    Progress, at last.

    Armed with those references, I contacted the Single Justice Service (SJS), hoping to establish which courts dealt with the cases, when the proceedings took place and how I could obtain the relevant records.

    Today, I received a reply.

    It began politely enough.

    Good afternoon.

    Thank you for your email.

    Then came the questions.

    The Six Questions

    The SJS asked me to provide a URN, case number or account number so that they could locate the case.

    Fair enough. I now have enforcement account references, although I cannot yet say whether those references are sufficient for the SJS to retrieve the underlying proceedings.

    Then, to pass security, they requested my full name and six further details:

    1. Date of birth.
    2. First line of address.
    3. Postcode.
    4. The organisation prosecuting me.
    5. The type of offence.
    6. The date of the offence.

    Some of those questions are perfectly reasonable.

    Court records contain sensitive personal information. The service needs to establish that it is dealing with the right person before disclosing anything.

    I have no objection to security checks.

    My concern is with the assumptions built into the questions.

    What if the information they’re asking me to provide is the very information I’m contacting them to discover?

    Please Identify the Organisation You Cannot Identify

    Take question four.

    The organisation prosecuting you.

    In my case, that might have been South Yorkshire Police. West Yorkshire Police is another possibility, given the geographical connections associated with the vehicle’s history.

    But I don’t know.

    And I don’t want to turn a suspicion into a fact merely because a government department has asked me to fill in a blank.

    Likewise, I know that the convictions are recorded as MS90, but that is an endorsement code. It doesn’t, by itself, give me the original charge particulars, the prosecuting authority or the precise offence dates.

    Those are things I am trying to establish.

    So here I am, asking the justice system to identify a case, while the justice system asks me to identify the case before it can assist.

    There is a certain elegance to the circularity.

    Unfortunately, it’s the sort of elegance that makes you want to put your head through a desk.

    The Human Search Engine

    Something else bothered me about Monday’s telephone marathon.

    I contacted several government departments. Only a minority of the people I reached seemed able to access information that moved my enquiry forward.

    That isn’t necessarily a criticism of those individuals.

    One department may have access to a particular database while another does not. Staff may be restricted by security rules, departmental responsibilities or the age of the records.

    A perfectly capable employee cannot retrieve information from a system they aren’t permitted to access.

    But from the perspective of the person seeking help, the experience is bewildering.

    Every time I explained the situation, I had to reconstruct the story from the beginning.

    Historical conviction. MS90 endorsement. Unknown original proceedings. Multiple previous addresses. Missing case references. Uncertainty about which police force was involved.

    That’s not a simple enquiry.

    It’s a small investigation.

    And I was effectively asking each call handler to perform it while also navigating whatever software, procedures and institutional boundaries their department happened to operate under.

    At what point does a public-service call handler become an unpaid systems integrator?

    Or, more accurately, an under-supported one?

    Complexity Has a Labour Cost

    This is where the problem becomes bigger than my driving record.

    We often discuss public-sector inefficiency as though the solution is simply to demand more from public-sector employees.

    Answer calls faster.

    Clear backlogs.

    Reduce waiting times.

    Process more enquiries.

    But what happens when the underlying system becomes so complicated that even understanding a caller’s problem requires substantial institutional knowledge?

    The person answering the phone may need to understand the distinction between a court case number and an enforcement account number, between a police force and a prosecuting authority, between an endorsement code and an offence, and between different court procedures.

    They may also need to know which department owns which record, what can be disclosed, what cannot be disclosed, and which process applies when the caller doesn’t know the information normally used to identify a case.

    That’s a considerable cognitive workload.

    And much of it appears to arise not from the complexity of the law itself, but from the complexity of the systems surrounding it.

    I find myself wondering how the public sector recruits, trains and retains people capable of navigating these increasingly elaborate arrangements.

    Because people with strong analytical skills, technical confidence and the ability to untangle complicated processes are valuable well beyond the justice system.

    In a labour market where private employers may offer better pay or working conditions, public institutions cannot simply assume that such expertise will always be available.

    I don’t have the staffing or salary data to claim that this explains the difficulties I encountered.

    But the question is worth asking.

    If a service becomes more complicated every year, what happens when the people required to understand it are not given the resources, training or incentives to keep up?

    An Email Pretending to Be a Form

    There’s another curious feature of the SJS response.

    It’s effectively a form, delivered by email.

    Six numbered questions, plus a request for a reference number and a description of the enquiry.

    Yet email doesn’t distinguish between information that is known, information that is uncertain and information that is unavailable.

    It doesn’t provide an obvious option for “I don’t know the prosecuting authority.”

    It doesn’t explain whether the offence date is required to pass security or merely useful for locating the record.

    And it doesn’t clearly distinguish between an account number held by an enforcement team and the court’s original case reference.

    A properly designed online enquiry service could do all of those things.

    It could ask:

    What are you trying to find?

    Then:

    What information do you already have?

    It could accept a known case reference, an enforcement account number, an approximate date, previous addresses or a suspected prosecuting authority.

    Crucially, it could allow the user to select:

    Unknown.

    That isn’t a failure to complete the form.

    It is useful information about the nature of the enquiry.

    The service could generate a ticket number, route the request to the appropriate team and provide a record of what had been requested.

    Email could remain available for follow-up and for people unable or unwilling to use a web form.

    None of this would magically join incompatible court databases or restore records that no longer exist.

    Nor should a public website expose criminal case details without appropriate identity checks.

    But better enquiry design could make uncertainty easier to communicate and reduce the need for people to repeat the same complicated explanation to multiple departments.

    The Difference Between Automation and Digitisation

    There’s a delightful irony here.

    I’ve been writing about automated injustice: the danger of systems that replicate errors, apply rigid rules and make it difficult for human beings to challenge incorrect records.

    Now I’m suggesting that the justice system needs more digital infrastructure.

    But those ideas aren’t contradictory.

    Automating a decision about someone’s legal rights is very different from automating the administration of a request for information.

    I don’t want a computer deciding whether I committed an offence merely because a database contains an endorsement code.

    I would, however, quite like a computer to tell me which department holds the original court record.

    One kind of automation risks removing human judgment where it is essential.

    The other could free human beings from repetitive administrative work so that they can exercise judgment where it actually matters.

    Good digitisation should make the system more intelligible, not merely faster at repeating its existing mistakes.

    The Real Problem Isn’t the Person Answering the Email

    I want to be fair to the SJS.

    Their response was courteous. They asked for identifying information. They explained that they needed to pass security before providing case-specific details.

    They haven’t yet refused to help me.

    And I haven’t established that their staff are unable to find the cases using the enforcement references I obtained.

    Those are important distinctions.

    My criticism is not that someone sent me six questions.

    It’s that, after hours of telephone calls, the next step in tracing a historical court record still appears to depend on my ability to reconstruct details that may exist only within the very institutions I’m asking for help.

    That suggests a system whose complexity is being transferred to the public and to the staff working at its edges.

    Perhaps the next reply will locate everything.

    Perhaps the account numbers will unlock the records immediately, and I’ll discover that I’ve been unnecessarily pessimistic.

    I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

    But even if my particular enquiry is resolved tomorrow, the design question remains.

    Should finding out what happened in a court case require the investigative skills of a detective, the patience of a saint and the persistence of a software engineer debugging somebody else’s undocumented legacy system?

    Because if the answer is yes, perhaps the problem isn’t that the public doesn’t understand the justice system.

    Perhaps the justice system has become unnecessarily difficult to understand.

    And perhaps, before we automate any more justice, we ought to make sure people can actually find it.

  • To Study Law, or Not to Study Law?

    Wednesday, 14 October 2026

    This is where my little Shakespearean chapter comes to an end. Over the past few days, I’ve borrowed his language to make sense of the law, its delays and its peculiar relationship with ordinary human life. But today’s question deserves something more modern than a soliloquy: a spreadsheet.

    To study law, or not to study law?

    That is the question.

    And this time, I thought I might begin with some numbers.

    Act I: What Happens to Law Graduates?

    If somebody enrols on a Bachelor of Laws (LLB) course with the intention of becoming a lawyer, what are their chances of finding themselves in a legal profession after graduation?

    It’s a surprisingly difficult question to answer.

    Fortunately, the Higher Education Statistics Agency conducts a Graduate Outcomes survey, and the results are published through Discover Uni.

    The survey asks graduates what they’re doing approximately fifteen months after completing their studies.

    That isn’t the same as asking whether they’ve qualified as solicitors or barristers. Qualification can take considerably longer, and some graduates pursue further education before entering practice.

    Nevertheless, the figures provide an interesting snapshot of where people actually go after studying law.

    Here are ten university law courses we’ve been examining, arranged by the proportion of employed survey respondents working in legal professional occupations.

    University and courseEmployed respondents in legal professional occupations
    Oxford — Jurisprudence55%
    Liverpool — Law with a Year Abroad55%
    Liverpool — standard LLB48%
    Durham — Law, broader subject data48%
    Surrey — Law45%
    Exeter — LLB Law44%
    Manchester Metropolitan — Law43%
    Nottingham — Law41%
    York — Law39%
    Bristol — Law36%

    Source: Discover Uni Graduate Outcomes course data, discussed and collected in October 2026. These are ten selected course entries, not the ten highest-performing law courses nationally. Survey cohorts, sample sizes and the degree of course-specific reporting differ.

    At first glance, something stands out.

    Only two entries exceed 50%.

    And one of those, Liverpool’s Law with a Year Abroad, is a relatively small course sample. Liverpool’s standard LLB records 48%.

    Oxford reports 55%, but even that figure doesn’t mean that 55% of everybody who starts the course will eventually become a lawyer.

    It means that 55% of the employed respondents whose occupations were captured in that particular survey were classified as legal professionals fifteen months after graduating.

    That’s a much narrower claim.

    Still, it raises a question.

    If someone studies law because they want to become a lawyer, should we be concerned when fewer than half of the employed graduates in many of these courses are already working in legal professional occupations?

    Act II: Is That Actually Bad News?

    My first reaction was surprise.

    If somebody studies medicine, we might reasonably expect a strong connection between the degree and the profession.

    Law feels similar. It has its own terminology, qualifications, institutions and professional rules.

    So why don’t these figures look more like a direct pipeline into legal practice?

    Part of the answer is timing.

    Fifteen months isn’t particularly long in the legal profession.

    Someone hoping to become a solicitor may still be preparing for professional examinations, looking for qualifying work experience or completing further study.

    Someone pursuing the Bar may still be undertaking vocational training or seeking pupillage.

    And not every graduate who wants a legal career will secure their preferred opportunity immediately.

    Then there’s the question of what counts as legal employment.

    The occupational category “legal professionals” doesn’t necessarily include everyone working in a law firm, court, regulatory body or legal-support role.

    Nor does it tell us which graduates will eventually qualify.

    There’s also a fundamental statistical problem.

    A percentage of employed survey respondents is not the probability that a new student will become a lawyer.

    Those are different populations, observed at different points in their careers.

    So we shouldn’t conclude that the majority of LLB graduates have less than a fifty-fifty chance of entering the legal profession.

    The data doesn’t establish that.

    But neither should we dismiss the figures as meaningless.

    They tell us that the transition from studying law to working in a legal profession is far from instantaneous.

    And that is worth knowing before committing years of study and substantial amounts of money to a degree.

    Act III: What Is a Law Degree Actually For?

    Perhaps the mistake is assuming that an LLB has only one purpose.

    A law degree can prepare someone for legal practice, but it can also develop abilities that are useful in business, government, journalism, policy, compliance and many other fields.

    Students learn to interpret complicated texts, examine evidence, construct arguments and identify where rules apply.

    Those skills don’t suddenly become worthless when their owner takes a job outside a courtroom.

    Indeed, perhaps the better question isn’t simply how many graduates become lawyers.

    Perhaps we should ask how many are doing meaningful work, whether their education helped them obtain it, and whether they consider the degree worthwhile.

    Discover Uni includes some of those broader measures too.

    That matters because a degree can be both professional preparation and an education in its own right.

    Still, if a university markets its LLB primarily as a route into legal practice, I think students are entitled to ask about the route.

    How many graduates obtain training contracts?

    How many secure pupillage?

    How many eventually qualify?

    How long does that take?

    And how much additional education, experience and expense is required after the undergraduate degree?

    Those would be more revealing measures of the professional pathway than a single employment snapshot.

    Unfortunately, they aren’t all answered by the headline Graduate Outcomes figures.

    Act IV: Must a Great Lawyer Have Studied Law?

    The next question is almost the reverse of the first.

    If studying law doesn’t guarantee a legal career, is studying law even necessary to become an exceptional lawyer?

    Consider ten distinguished British legal figures.

    Five studied law or jurisprudence as undergraduates.

    Five approached the profession from another academic direction.

    Studied law or jurisprudenceStudied another subject first
    Baroness Brenda HaleMichael Mansfield KC — philosophy
    Lord ReedDinah Rose KC — history
    Cherie Blair KCLord Jonathan Sumption — history
    Amal ClooneyLord Michael Briggs — history
    Keir StarmerHelena Kennedy KC — law-related studies following earlier education*

    An important qualification: Helena Kennedy KC is not a clean example of someone who qualified through an unrelated university degree, so she shouldn’t be treated as evidence for that category. The fifth position remains open pending a suitably verified example.

    Even without forcing the numbers into a perfectly symmetrical comparison, the point is clear.

    Some remarkable lawyers began with law.

    Others began with history or philosophy.

    Lord Sumption became one of the country’s leading advocates and later a Supreme Court justice despite having studied history rather than law as an undergraduate.

    Michael Mansfield’s background in philosophy hardly prevented him from becoming one of Britain’s most recognisable criminal barristers.

    Meanwhile, Baroness Hale and Lord Reed demonstrate what can be achieved by people who did study law from the outset.

    The evidence doesn’t establish that one route is superior.

    We’re looking at highly successful individuals, not a representative sample of graduates.

    But it does challenge the idea that a particular undergraduate subject is a necessary ingredient of legal excellence.

    The route into a profession is not necessarily the same thing as the qualities required to excel within it.

    Act V: The Software Engineer’s Perspective

    This is where my own situation becomes relevant.

    I studied software engineering.

    At first glance, that might seem rather distant from law.

    Software engineers deal with specifications, databases, interfaces, systems and logic.

    Lawyers deal with statutes, judgments, evidence, procedures and arguments.

    But the more I encounter the legal system, the more similarities I notice.

    Both disciplines depend on rules.

    Both involve interpreting imperfect information.

    Both require an understanding of how individual decisions affect a larger system.

    And both can suffer when the system behaves exactly as designed but produces a result that doesn’t reflect the reality of the situation.

    My recent experience trying to trace an old motoring conviction has made that painfully clear.

    Different departments held different pieces of information. One system could not identify a record that another could apparently retrieve. Finding the origin of a decision became an exercise in following references between institutions.

    To a software engineer, that sounds suspiciously like a problem involving data integrity, traceability and system interfaces.

    Of course, recognising an engineering analogy doesn’t mean I understand the relevant legal principles.

    A legal process isn’t simply a badly designed computer program.

    It involves human rights, obligations, standards of proof and procedural safeguards that cannot be reduced to technical efficiency.

    But perhaps a background in engineering provides a useful perspective.

    And perhaps studying law would help me understand the parts of the problem that engineering alone cannot explain.

    My LLM: A Navigation Instrument

    I’m considering studying for a Master of Laws.

    Not because I believe another degree will automatically create a new career.

    And not because I think an LLM is equivalent to qualifying as a solicitor or barrister.

    It isn’t.

    I’m interested because my professional direction is changing, and I’m beginning to explore questions that sit between technology, law, evidence and institutional accountability.

    That feels like uncharted territory.

    Software engineering has equipped me with certain instruments: systems thinking, technical analysis and a habit of questioning how information moves between components.

    But those instruments were designed for a different landscape.

    A postgraduate law degree could give me something I don’t yet possess: a structured understanding of legal concepts, institutions and methods.

    A map, perhaps.

    Or a compass.

    Something to help me navigate a field in which I can currently identify some of the problems but don’t always know the correct legal vocabulary for describing them.

    That doesn’t make my existing education irrelevant.

    Quite the opposite.

    I suspect the combination could be more useful than either discipline on its own.

    The Final Numbers

    Let’s return to the two comparisons.

    In our selected list of ten law-course entries, only two show more than half of employed respondents working in legal professional occupations fifteen months after graduation.

    That doesn’t establish that most law graduates will never become lawyers.

    It establishes that legal education and legal employment aren’t the same milestone.

    Meanwhile, among the distinguished legal figures we’ve examined, some began by studying law and others arrived through entirely different academic disciplines.

    That doesn’t establish that a law degree offers no advantage.

    It establishes that the legal profession can benefit from more than one kind of intellectual preparation.

    I think there’s something encouraging in both findings.

    An LLB doesn’t dictate your destination.

    And a degree in another subject doesn’t necessarily close the door to law.

    As for me, I already have one degree and a particular way of looking at the world.

    I’m not proposing to discard either.

    I’m considering adding another instrument to the toolkit.

    A degree cannot guarantee where you’ll end up. But when you’re entering unfamiliar territory, learning how to navigate is a perfectly good reason to study.

    And with that, I think Shakespeare can finally take his bow.

    The next chapter will have to be written in my own words.

  • The Law’s Delay: A Monday in Five Acts

    Monday, 12 October 2026 — A belated entry

    William Shakespeare died more than four hundred years ago.

    He never had to telephone His Majesty’s Courts and Tribunals Service. He never listened to a recorded voice asking him to select an option from a menu. And, so far as I know, nobody ever subjected him to sixty consecutive minutes of hold music.

    Yet by the end of Monday, I was beginning to suspect that Shakespeare understood my predicament rather well.

    But I’m getting ahead of myself.

    Act I: To Press One, or Not to Press One

    My Monday began with what seemed a relatively straightforward objective.I needed to locate the court records behind an old MS90 conviction — an offence involving failure to provide information about the identity of a driver.I dispute that I was responsible for the alleged offence. The conviction appears to have contributed to the revocation of my full driving licence, and I had only recently become aware of the proceedings.

    The circumstances surrounding that period of my life were complicated. COVID had disrupted almost everything, and I’d changed addresses several times. I cannot yet say precisely what happened to the original notices, or why the conviction came to be associated with me.That’s what I’m trying to establish.

    Surely, I thought, the court would have a record.I telephoned HMCTS.Immediately, I encountered my first obstacle.

    The automated telephone service wanted to know whether my enquiry concerned the Single Justice Procedure.Now, many relatively minor motoring offences are dealt with under that procedure. But I didn’t know whether mine had been.

    And that was rather the point of calling.

    Unfortunately, the automated system offered no option for “I don’t know; could somebody please tell me?”

    It offered Yes or No.

    To press one, or not to press one?

    I spent approximately half an hour waiting to reach the relevant departments. In the end, neither could provide the historical MS90 case information I needed.

    The first act concluded without a case number, a court record or even a clear idea of who might possess either.

    Act II: A Welsh Voice and a Circular Journey

    By about 10am, I decided to try DVLA.If the conviction had resulted in penalty points and the loss of my driving licence, perhaps the agency responsible for maintaining driving records could identify the original endorsement.

    Unfortunately, the person I spoke to couldn’t locate the historical information I needed.

    There was, at least, the consolation of a pleasant Welsh accent.

    The adviser suggested contacting the penalty office and gave me a telephone number.

    Excellent, I thought. A new lead.

    I dialled it.

    And found myself listening to the very same automated service with which I had begun my morning.

    I had completed an entire administrative circuit and arrived back at the entrance.

    Had Shakespeare written this scene, I suspect the audience would have laughed.

    I was less amused.

    But the adviser had inadvertently given me something useful: the name of another department.So I searched online and found various contact numbers for penalty offices, many apparently concerned with collecting payments rather than investigating old cases.

    Eventually, I found a number for a North East England penalties office, based in Lincoln.

    Onward to Act III.Act III: The Hour of Waiting

    The next telephone call involved approximately another hour on hold.

    There is something peculiarly exhausting about waiting on a telephone.

    You cannot quite concentrate on anything else, because at any moment the music might stop and a human being might answer.

    You must remain alert enough to explain a complicated situation immediately, yet passive enough to endure the same short piece of music repeating indefinitely.

    It is neither proper rest nor productive work.

    It is a kind of administrative purgatory.

    When I finally reached someone, they were helpful. Unfortunately, the office no longer held the historical penalty information I needed.

    They could identify a more recent matter, but not the old MS90 case.

    Another dead end, or so it seemed.Then came the most useful suggestion of the morning.

    Because I had recently become aware of the historical matter through enforcement agents — commonly known as bailiffs — I should try contacting the court enforcement team.

    This was a department I hadn’t thought to approach.

    After all, I was trying to investigate the origins of a conviction, not pay an outstanding penalty.

    But perhaps the people responsible for enforcing a decision would retain information that the people answering general court enquiries could no longer find.It was worth one more call.

    Act IV: Enter the Enforcement Team

    By this point, it was approaching midday.

    I telephoned the enforcement team.Another hour on hold.Another hour of listening for the tiny interruption that might signal the arrival of an actual person.

    And then, finally, something happened.The adviser could see information relating to my historical MS90 matter on their system.

    For the first time that day, I was speaking to someone who could read back details connected to the very case I had spent the morning trying to trace.

    I still didn’t have the complete court file, and the information did not resolve the question of whether the conviction was correctly attributed to me.

    But it established a tangible trail.

    There was information in an official system. There were references I could use. The matter was no longer just an old endorsement I was trying to explain.The adviser supplied two enforcement account numbers, each consisting of eight digits followed by a letter.

    As I understood the explanation, the numbers related to different periods of records, one before 2022 and one afterwards.These were not necessarily the original court case numbers or Unique Reference Numbers. But they were identifiers that another department might be able to use to locate the underlying matters.

    That was progress.The next step would be to take those references back to the Single Justice Procedure service and ask it to identify the proceedings associated with them.

    For any conviction of which I genuinely had no knowledge, I also need to establish the appropriate procedure for making a statutory declaration, including whether any application would now be considered late.

    Each case must be identified separately. A single account reference may not tell the whole story.

    Still, after several hours, I finally had something more useful than another telephone number.

    I had a lead.

    And the strangest part was where it had come from.

    The enforcement team — the very part of the system concerned with collecting the consequences of a decision — had been the first to help me trace its origins.

    There is an irony there that even Shakespeare might have appreciated.

    I had spent the morning looking for the beginning of a legal process.It was the people dealing with its ending who could point me backwards.

    Act V: The Law’s Delay

    By nearly 2pm, I was mentally exhausted.

    On paper, I had spent only a few hours making telephone calls.

    In practice, those hours had involved repeated explanations, uncertain departmental boundaries, long periods of forced attention and the constant possibility that each call would lead nowhere.

    I had begun with a simple question: where are the records relating to this conviction?Several hours later, I had two account references and a possible route to obtaining them.

    That might sound like modest progress.To me, it felt like winning a small battle.

    I couldn’t face another call that afternoon.Later that evening, I watched a documentary about Shakespeare and the many actors and directors who have interpreted his plays over the twentieth century.

    There was discussion of Macbeth, among other works, and it reminded me of a line I’d encountered in Hamlet.In the famous “To be, or not to be” speech, Hamlet lists some of the burdens people endure:

    “The oppressor’s wrong, the proud man’s contumely,

    The pangs of dispriz’d love, the law’s delay,

    The insolence of office…”

    The law’s delay.

    There it was.

    Four hundred years ago, Shakespeare was already describing the frustration of waiting for legal processes to deliver something resembling resolution.

    Of course, he wasn’t talking about call centres or automated menus.

    But the underlying experience seems surprisingly familiar.

    The difficulty of obtaining answers. The distance between an individual and an institution. The feeling that the machinery of justice moves according to a timetable entirely unrelated to the urgency of the person caught inside it.

    I had been thinking about the legal system as an engineer.On Monday, I found myself thinking about it as a playwright might.

    A succession of characters entered the scene. Each knew something, but nobody appeared to know the whole story. Each directed me towards another character. The audience — in this case, me — waited for the plot to advance.

    The difficulty was that I wasn’t watching a play.I was trying to find out why my driving licence had been revoked.An Unexpected Lesson

    If anyone reading this is trying to trace an old magistrates’ court matter, particularly one that has reached the stage of enforcement, Monday taught me something worth sharing.

    The court enforcement team may be able to identify historical matters that are difficult to locate through general enquiries.

    That won’t necessarily be true in every case, and enforcement account numbers aren’t substitutes for the original court records.

    But if a matter has been referred for enforcement, it’s worth asking whether the enforcement team can provide references, identify the originating court and explain how to trace the underlying proceedings.

    In my case, it was the first genuinely productive route I found.I still have questions about the MS90 conviction, the notices that may have been issued, the addresses used and the consequences for my driving licence.

    I don’t yet know whether the explanation is an administrative mistake, an incorrectly attributed allegation, a failure of communication or something else.I intend to find out.

    And I intend to document the process, because somebody else may one day find themselves in the same position, facing the same telephone menus and wondering where to begin.

    Perhaps the most frustrating part of Monday wasn’t that nobody wanted to help.

    The people I eventually spoke to generally did try to help.

    It was that the information appeared to be divided between systems, with no obvious route for an ordinary person to discover which one held the answer.

    A system can contain the information you need and still make that information extraordinarily difficult to obtain.

    Shakespeare understood the law’s delay.

    I wonder what he would have made of the hold music.

    To be continued.

  • The Law Is a System, But Life Doesn’t Follow a Specification

    Blog #1 — 11 October 2026

    I’ve spent a considerable amount of time thinking about how systems work.

    In engineering, the starting point is usually a specification. We agree what something is supposed to do, define how its components interact, and establish rules that make the outcome predictable.

    A USB device works because manufacturers agree on a standard. Software communicates through protocols. Machines can be tested against known requirements.

    When something goes wrong, we can ask a relatively straightforward question: did the system behave according to its specification?

    But lately I’ve been wondering what happens when we apply that same way of thinking to human beings.

    Because the law is also a system.

    It has rules, procedures, classifications, deadlines and mechanisms for enforcement. In theory, these allow millions of people to live together under a shared framework.

    The difference is that human lives don’t arrive with specifications.

    A World That Doesn’t Follow the Rules

    An engineer can design a system around known inputs.

    A legal system has to deal with memories, intentions, misunderstandings, changing circumstances, missing information and people who don’t necessarily behave as expected.

    Two people might witness the same event and remember it differently. Someone might move house and never receive a letter. A vehicle might be registered to one person, driven by another and left in the possession of a third.

    The administrative system still needs to produce an answer.

    It needs names, dates, addresses, responsibilities and outcomes.

    But the fact that a situation can be reduced to fields in a database doesn’t mean those fields tell the whole story.

    A record can be complete according to its specification and incomplete according to reality.

    That’s where the engineering analogy begins to get interesting.

    A Mustang on Judge Judy

    I was reminded of this while watching an old episode of Judge Judy involving a Ford Mustang and a test drive that ended badly.

    What interested me wasn’t simply who damaged the car. It was the way the case exposed different layers of responsibility.

    There was the person who drove the vehicle, the person who owned it, the costs of recovering it and the question of what the car was actually worth.

    From a purely mechanical perspective, the problem seemed simple: a car had been damaged.

    But legally, the answer depended on several different questions. Who had the relevant rights? Who was responsible for particular decisions? What loss could actually be established?

    At one point, the discussion turned to the car’s surprisingly low value and the towing and impound costs.

    It struck me that the physical event and the legal consequences were not necessarily the same thing.

    A damaged car is an engineering problem.

    Determining who should pay, and how much, is a problem involving evidence, responsibility and judgment.

    The law has to turn a complicated human event into a decision that can be enforced.

    And that transformation isn’t always straightforward.

    The Difference Between a Rule and Reality

    In engineering, rules are often agreed before the system is built.

    If two components don’t implement the same protocol, they may not communicate. If a machine receives an invalid input, we can design it to reject that input.

    Human society is different.

    The law applies whether or not someone has read every relevant statute or understands every procedure.

    There are good reasons for this. A society couldn’t function if each person could choose which laws applied to them.

    But it creates an unusual relationship between the system and its users.

    We are expected to comply with rules that may be complicated, distributed across multiple institutions and difficult to understand without specialist knowledge.

    And unlike a piece of software, we cannot simply inspect the entire specification before participating.

    We’re already participating.

    When Institutions Become Components

    Modern legal administration increasingly resembles a network of interconnected systems.

    A court makes a decision. Another organisation records its consequences. An enforcement process may then act on that record.

    Each institution has its own responsibilities, procedures and data.

    From an engineering perspective, this sounds familiar. It’s a distributed system.

    And distributed systems introduce a particular problem: one component may trust information received from another without independently verifying how that information was established.

    Imagine an error entering at the beginning.

    The first institution records it. The second receives it. The third acts on it.

    By the end, several organisations may possess records that appear to support the same conclusion.

    But those records aren’t necessarily independent evidence.

    They may all be copies of the same original assumption.

    A mistake doesn’t become true because it has been replicated successfully.

    That seems obvious when talking about software.

    It becomes considerably more important when the records concern human beings.

    The Problem With Perfect Compliance

    There’s a temptation to judge a system by whether it follows its own rules.

    Did the correct form get issued? Was the record transmitted? Did the next department apply the prescribed procedure?

    Those are necessary questions.

    But they aren’t sufficient.

    An institution might follow its procedures correctly while acting on incomplete or inaccurate information.

    This doesn’t mean procedures are pointless. Quite the opposite: procedures protect people from arbitrary decisions.

    It means the quality of a system depends not only on its normal operation but also on what happens when its assumptions are challenged.

    Engineers understand this distinction.

    We test for failures. We build diagnostics. We preserve logs. We design recovery mechanisms.

    We don’t simply declare a machine reliable because it performs well when every input is correct.

    We ask what happens when something unexpected occurs.

    The legal system deserves the same scrutiny.

    Can We Engineer Better Justice?

    My first instinct when I look at administrative complexity is to ask why more of it can’t be automated.

    Why should obtaining a record take weeks? Why should the same information need to be requested from several organisations? Why should someone have to navigate telephone menus just to find out which institution holds a particular document?

    Surely technology could make these things easier.

    And perhaps it can.

    But I’ve also begun to wonder whether automation introduces a different danger.

    If a decision is wrong, making its consequences faster and more efficient isn’t necessarily an improvement.

    A system that can automatically impose a consequence should ideally be equally capable of explaining the decision, preserving its supporting evidence and providing an effective route to challenge it.

    Otherwise, we risk building systems that are exceptionally good at enforcing their conclusions and surprisingly poor at reconsidering them.

    That is not an argument against digitisation.

    It’s an argument for thinking more carefully about what we’re digitising.

    Why I’m Writing This

    These questions are no longer entirely theoretical for me.

    I’m preparing to navigate a legal and administrative process concerning records and decisions that affect me personally.

    Over the coming days, I intend to document that journey here.

    I’ll write about the records I request, the responses I receive, the procedures I encounter and the practical lessons I learn.

    Some of my assumptions may turn out to be wrong. Some apparent inconsistencies may have straightforward explanations. Others may prove more difficult to resolve.

    I’ll try to distinguish carefully between documented facts, personal recollections and unanswered questions.

    This isn’t legal advice, and I don’t intend to turn an unresolved situation into a collection of accusations.

    My hope is that a transparent account of the process might help other people facing similar circumstances.

    And perhaps, along the way, it will reveal something useful about how our institutions work.

    The Specification Is Not the Whole Story

    Engineering has taught us extraordinary things about reliability, consistency and the value of shared rules.

    But human beings are not machines.

    Our circumstances are messy. Our memories are imperfect. Our intentions aren’t always visible. And the information recorded about us isn’t always the whole truth.

    A legal system needs rules to function.

    Yet if those rules are to serve justice, the system must also have room for the unexpected, the disputed and the genuinely mistaken.

    Because a system isn’t truly reliable simply because it follows its specification.

    It must also be capable of recognising when the specification fails to describe reality.

    And, more importantly, it must know what to do next.

  • Idiocracy Got the Future Wrong: What If Humanity Splits Into the Smart and Everyone Else?

    Idiocracy Got the Future Wrong: What If Humanity Splits Into the Smart and Everyone Else?

    Idiocracy opens with one of the film’s most memorable jokes.

    An intelligent, educated couple carefully debates when they should have a child. They worry about finances, careers and whether the timing is right. Years pass. Meanwhile, a spectacularly irresponsible man produces child after child, whose children proceed to do exactly the same thing.

    Fast-forward several centuries and, according to the film, natural selection has done its work backwards: humanity has become catastrophically stupid.

    It is funny.

    But what if Idiocracy got the mechanism wrong?

    What if intelligent people don’t disappear?

    What if they continue having children—perhaps only one or two—but increasingly have those children with other highly intelligent people? And what happens if reproductive technology eventually allows wealthy and technically sophisticated parents not merely to pass on their advantages, but to deliberately amplify them?

    Instead of humanity becoming universally stupid, we might get something much stranger:

    a civilization in which different populations of humans become so cognitively unequal that they begin to seem like different species.

    This isn’t a prediction. Five hundred years is far beyond anything social science or genetics can forecast sensibly.

    But several pieces of the scenario have surprisingly real foundations.

    The Part Idiocracy Misses

    The film essentially imagines intelligence as a single resource gradually being bred out of humanity.

    Real populations are considerably more complicated.

    Intelligence is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, and neither “intelligence” nor educational success can be reduced to a handful of genes. Research in behavioural genetics indicates substantial genetic influences on cognitive differences while also finding important environmental effects and interactions between the two. Educational attainment likewise reflects cognitive ability, non-cognitive traits and environmental circumstances.

    There’s another important phenomenon: assortative mating.

    People don’t choose partners randomly.

    Among many other characteristics, people tend to partner with others who resemble them educationally and cognitively. A large international meta-analysis covering millions of people across 84 countries found substantial assortative mating for educational attainment, although its strength varied considerably between places and historical periods.

    Research has also reported substantial spouse correlations for intelligence. One widely cited review estimated a correlation of roughly 0.4 for intelligence, considerably higher than that observed for many personality traits.

    Genetic studies complicate the picture further. Partners can also show similarity in genetic variants associated with educational attainment, although that does not mean people are consciously choosing partners based on “education genes.” Social class, geography, institutions, personality and other correlated characteristics can all contribute to who meets and partners with whom. Recent research emphasizes precisely this mixture of genetic and social processes.

    That distinction is important.

    Our hypothetical future doesn’t require a secret caste of geniuses selectively breeding.

    The sorting could happen largely by itself.

    Now Add Reproductive Technology

    This is where the scenario begins departing dramatically from the world of Idiocracy.

    Imagine the year 2150.

    IVF is routine. Embryos can be screened for enormous numbers of genetic variants. Gene editing is safer than it is today. Artificial gametes may allow reproduction under circumstances impossible today. AI systems predict developmental outcomes.

    Some of those technologies remain speculative, but one primitive version of this future already exists: polygenic embryo screening.

    Rather than testing an embryo for a single disease-causing mutation, polygenic screening attempts to estimate probabilities associated with complex traits or diseases using many genetic variants.

    The technology has major limitations. Polygenic scores are probabilistic rather than deterministic, complex traits involve environment as well as genetics, embryos from the same parents have limited genetic variation to choose among, and selecting for one characteristic can have unexpected relationships with others. Researchers have therefore urged considerable caution, particularly concerning psychiatric and cognitive traits.

    The American Society for Reproductive Medicine’s 2026 ethics opinion similarly states that polygenic embryo testing should not currently be used for non-medical trait selection.

    But our thought experiment concerns 2526, not 2026.

    Suppose those limitations gradually diminish.

    Then something historically unprecedented becomes possible.

    Parents don’t merely transmit their genes.

    They begin choosing among—and eventually modifying—the genetic possibilities available to their children.

    Intelligence Becomes an Investment

    At first, enhancement would probably be expensive.

    That matters enormously.

    Imagine that wealthy parents can afford superior prenatal medicine, sophisticated embryo selection, personalized AI education, neural interfaces and eventually safe genetic modifications affecting cognition.

    Their children inherit wealth.

    They inherit educational advantages.

    They inherit social connections.

    But now they potentially inherit deliberately selected biological advantages as well.

    Those children disproportionately meet and reproduce with similarly advantaged people.

    The process repeats.

    You have created a feedback loop:

    cognitive advantage → economic advantage → access to enhancement → enhanced offspring → greater cognitive advantage.

    Research into the ethics of polygenic embryo screening already identifies unequal access, discrimination, reproductive autonomy and justice as major concerns—even while today’s technology remains extremely limited. A 2026 scoping review of the literature identified unequal access, stigmatization and potential demographic consequences among the recurring ethical concerns.

    Now imagine those forces operating for centuries.

    The Great Cognitive Divergence

    Jump forward to 2526.

    There are still billions of ordinary humans.

    Importantly, they aren’t necessarily stupid.

    They might be healthier, better educated and technologically more capable than we are.

    But perhaps a tiny fraction of humanity has undergone generations of deliberate enhancement.

    Their brains develop differently.

    Their working memory is vastly greater.

    Neural implants provide effectively perfect recall.

    AI systems are integrated directly into their cognition.

    They routinely live for centuries and consequently accumulate 150 years of education and professional experience.

    The distinction between the populations would no longer resemble the difference between someone with an IQ of 100 and someone with an IQ of 140.

    It might resemble the cognitive difference between species.

    Biologically they might still be capable of interbreeding. Strictly speaking, they therefore wouldn’t necessarily constitute different species.

    Socially and psychologically, however, they could inhabit completely different worlds.

    And that’s when the interesting problems begin.

    Problem One: Democracy Becomes Awkward

    Imagine that humanity is debating whether to construct a self-replicating industrial network around Mercury.

    Understanding the proposal requires advanced knowledge of orbital mechanics, artificial intelligence, economics, materials science and risk modelling.

    An enhanced citizen can genuinely understand the arguments.

    Most ordinary citizens cannot.

    Yet everyone possesses one vote.

    The enhanced population begins asking:

    Why should people who cannot understand these decisions have equal authority over them?

    Ordinary humanity responds with an equally reasonable question:

    Why should being smarter give you the right to rule us?

    Democracy has always had to reconcile differences in knowledge and expertise. But enormous engineered cognitive inequality would turn that old problem into something qualitatively different.

    The most disturbing outcome might not even be dictatorship.

    It could be benevolent technocracy.

    The enhanced administrators really do make better decisions.

    Infrastructure works.

    Disease declines.

    The economy functions.

    Wars become rarer.

    And consequently it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that ordinary people should have meaningful control over the civilization in which they live.

    Problem Two: Language Begins To Separate

    Human language is constrained partly by what human brains can comfortably process.

    Suppose an enhanced human can simultaneously manipulate dozens of complicated concepts in working memory.

    Their communication might become correspondingly complicated.

    Perhaps neural interfaces eventually allow people to transmit conceptual structures that ordinary spoken language cannot efficiently represent.

    Enhanced people develop their own vocabulary.

    Then their own grammar.

    Then perhaps something that barely resembles language as we understand it.

    Ordinary humans can still learn simplified versions of it, just as people today can learn some advanced mathematics.

    But they cannot truly think in it at full complexity.

    Eventually the elite maintain a simplified language specifically for communicating with ordinary humans.

    That would be socially poisonous.

    Imagine knowing that every government announcement, scientific explanation and philosophical argument you encounter has effectively been translated into Human: Beginner Level.

    Problem Three: They Stop Wanting To Talk To Us

    This might be more consequential than any law.

    Imagine possessing extraordinary working memory, near-perfect recall and a 300-year lifespan.

    At age ten, you have mastered material that currently requires postgraduate education.

    At 50, you have accumulated decades of intellectual experience.

    At 200, you’ve lived through several ordinary human lifetimes.

    What does an ordinary conversation feel like?

    Perhaps painfully slow.

    Perhaps repetitive.

    Perhaps charming—but in the way adults sometimes find conversations with children charming.

    The enhanced population might genuinely care about ordinary humanity.

    They might defend our rights.

    They might love human art and history.

    But caring about someone isn’t necessarily the same thing as regarding them as your intellectual peer.

    That psychological separation could matter enormously.

    Problem Four: Love Creates a Caste System

    Nobody needs to pass a law prohibiting intermarriage.

    People simply choose partners with whom they can communicate most easily.

    Enhanced people disproportionately form relationships with enhanced people.

    Ordinary humans disproportionately partner with ordinary humans.

    Their children inherit both the technological and social advantages of their parents.

    After generations, intermarriage becomes unusual.

    A caste system has appeared without anyone deliberately creating one.

    This is an exaggerated extrapolation, but the starting mechanism isn’t imaginary: substantial assortative mating by education already exists today.

    Technology simply turns an existing social tendency into something far more powerful.

    Problem Five: 0.1% of Humanity Runs Civilization

    The enhanced population wouldn’t necessarily need to be large.

    Suppose ordinary humanity numbers 15 billion.

    There are only 15 million extreme cognitive elites.

    That’s 0.1 percent of humanity.

    But imagine that this tiny population performs most fundamental scientific research, controls the most advanced AI systems, operates interplanetary infrastructure and owns enormous quantities of capital.

    Humanity has recreated aristocracy.

    Except there is one deeply uncomfortable difference.

    The aristocrats of the past generally claimed inherent superiority.

    This new aristocracy might possess demonstrable cognitive abilities that most people genuinely cannot match.

    That does not establish a moral right to rule.

    But it makes the political argument much more difficult than overthrowing a duke whose principal qualification was having the correct grandfather.

    Problem Six: What Does “Equality” Mean Anymore?

    Modern societies generally distinguish moral equality from equality of ability.

    People obviously differ in strength, intelligence, health and talent, but those differences don’t determine whether someone counts as a person.

    Extreme enhancement would stress that principle.

    Suppose an enhanced person lives for 500 years.

    Does killing that person represent the same loss as killing someone expecting to live another 50?

    Suppose another enhancement allows someone to experience subjective time ten times faster than normal.

    Should a ten-year prison sentence be measured according to external time or experienced time?

    Suppose an artificial or heavily modified human can simultaneously sustain several streams of conscious thought.

    Is that one legal person?

    The concept of universal human rights survives fairly easily when humans occupy broadly similar ranges of capability.

    It becomes philosophically stranger once “human” includes minds radically unlike one another.

    Problem Seven: Ordinary Humanity Becomes Economically Unnecessary

    Artificial intelligence alone raises questions about technological unemployment.

    Now add cognitively enhanced humans working alongside that AI.

    One enhanced scientist might perform work that once required hundreds of ordinary researchers.

    Ordinary humans aren’t merely competing with machines.

    They’re competing with machine-assisted posthumans.

    Eventually most ordinary people may not need to work.

    Materially, that could be wonderful.

    Energy is abundant. Machines manufacture necessities. Medicine is extraordinary. Poverty in the traditional sense barely exists.

    Yet something psychologically devastating has happened.

    Billions of people know civilization doesn’t particularly need their contribution.

    The political demand of the future therefore might not be:

    “Give us more wealth.”

    It might be:

    “Give us something meaningful to do.”

    Problem Eight: The Anti-Enhancement Movement

    Not everyone would participate.

    Religious groups might reject genetic modification.

    Political movements might insist upon preserving baseline humanity.

    Some communities might regard neural implants as destroying authentic consciousness.

    Others might permit disease prevention but prohibit cognitive enhancement.

    They might proudly call themselves Naturals, Baselines or simply Humans.

    Then society encounters an extraordinarily difficult question.

    Suppose enhancement becomes safe and genuinely beneficial.

    If parents can give their child vastly improved memory, health and lifespan, is refusing enhancement an exercise of parental freedom?

    Or is it denying a child opportunities?

    Today’s bioethics literature already wrestles with much more modest versions of questions involving reproductive autonomy, justice, disability, eugenics and the welfare of future children.

    Five centuries of technological progress wouldn’t necessarily solve those disagreements.

    It might make them explosive.

    Problem Nine: There Isn’t Just One “Superior Human”

    Perhaps the strangest possibility is that humanity doesn’t divide into two groups at all.

    It divides into dozens.

    One population optimizes mathematical cognition.

    Another emphasizes emotional cognition and social coordination.

    Another adapts itself for life in low gravity.

    Another prioritizes longevity.

    Another integrates extensively with artificial intelligence.

    Another abandons biological bodies almost entirely.

    Meanwhile, traditionalist populations deliberately remain genetically close to historical Homo sapiens.

    Human evolution stops looking like a ladder:

    Homo sapiens → Homo superior

    and starts looking like a tree.

    After enough time, inhabitants of Mars, virtual civilizations and genetically conservative Earth communities might have almost nothing in common beyond ancestry.

    “Humanity” becomes less a biological category than a political alliance between descendants of the same species.

    Problem Ten: The Human Zoo

    There is one final possibility that might be darker than open dictatorship.

    The enhanced don’t conquer ordinary humanity.

    They manage it.

    Their understanding of psychology, economics and social systems is so sophisticated that direct coercion is unnecessary.

    They design algorithms that subtly encourage desirable behaviour.

    They structure economic incentives.

    They construct cities to influence social interaction.

    They curate information environments to discourage dangerous political movements.

    Ordinary people continue voting.

    They have freedom of speech.

    They choose careers and partners.

    Nobody tells them what to do.

    But the enhanced population understands their behaviour so well that society has effectively become a managed ecosystem.

    A human zoo.

    And the inhabitants don’t know there are zookeepers.

    The disturbing part is that the keepers might sincerely be benevolent.

    But What If the “Inferior” Humans Have Something the Geniuses Don’t?

    There is one final reversal worth considering.

    Optimization creates trade-offs.

    Today’s polygenic research already warns against imagining complex traits as independent sliders that can simply be turned up and down. Genetic variants can influence multiple characteristics, and complex traits emerge from interactions among enormous numbers of genes and environmental factors.

    Perhaps centuries of optimizing humans for intelligence gradually reduce characteristics nobody realized were important.

    Spontaneity.

    Risk-taking.

    Unusual cognitive variation.

    Certain forms of creativity.

    Emotional intensity.

    Tolerance for disorder.

    Perhaps the enhanced population becomes extraordinarily good at rationally exploring solutions inside existing conceptual frameworks—and increasingly bad at producing the lunatic who asks whether the entire framework is wrong.

    Their civilization becomes fantastically sophisticated.

    And fantastically brittle.

    Then some unprecedented catastrophe occurs.

    The greatest minds humanity has ever produced cannot solve it because they all share assumptions deliberately selected into their civilization over hundreds of years.

    And somewhere outside that civilization exists a population of unmodified humans.

    Messy.

    Impulsive.

    Inefficient.

    Unpredictable.

    Exactly the traits civilization spent centuries eliminating.

    And one of them comes up with an idea that nobody else would.

    Idiocracy in Reverse

    That may be the more interesting version of Idiocracy.

    Humanity doesn’t become stupid.

    Humanity becomes unequal in ways we have never previously encountered.

    The ordinary people of 2526 might be perfectly intelligent by our standards. They may simply inhabit a civilization whose most advanced institutions have become incomprehensible to them.

    Above—or perhaps merely apart from—them exists a small population produced through centuries of assortative mating, accumulated wealth, reproductive technology, artificial intelligence and eventually deliberate biological enhancement.

    They aren’t gods.

    They aren’t necessarily villains.

    They may genuinely want what is best for everyone.

    And that’s precisely what makes the scenario interesting.

    Because the ultimate political question would no longer be simply whether everyone deserves equal rights.

    It would be:

    Who should determine humanity’s future when some humans can understand that future vastly better than others?

    And perhaps the question after that is even more important:

    At what point do those people stop thinking of the rest of us as “us”?


    Further Reading

    For readers interested in the real science behind the speculation:

    Plomin & Deary (2015), “Genetics and intelligence differences: five special findings.” A review discussing genetic research on intelligence, including evidence concerning assortative mating.

    Sunde, Eilertsen & Torvik (2025), “Understanding indirect assortative mating and its intergenerational consequences for educational attainment.” A large Norwegian family study examining genetic and social mechanisms underlying partner similarity in education.

    Robinson et al. (2017), “Genetic evidence of assortative mating in humans.” Research using genetic data to investigate assortative mating across human traits, including educational attainment.

    Lázaro-Muñoz et al. (2021), “Screening embryos for polygenic conditions and traits: ethical considerations for an emerging technology.” An introduction to some of the ethical questions surrounding polygenic embryo screening.

    Lencz et al. (2022), “Concerns about the use of polygenic embryo screening for psychiatric and cognitive traits.” A useful discussion of why present-day polygenic prediction should not be mistaken for a reliable “intelligence selector.”

    Screening embryos for polygenic disease risk (2024), Human Reproduction Update. A broad review of epidemiological, clinical and ethical issues surrounding embryo screening.

    American Society for Reproductive Medicine (2026), Ethics Committee opinion on PGT-P. A useful snapshot of the present professional position: possible medical applications are being debated, while non-medical trait selection is not considered an appropriate current use.

    This article is a speculative thought experiment, not a prediction of future human evolution. Current genetic technologies cannot reliably engineer the kind of cognitive divergence described here, and intelligence is a complex product of genetic, developmental, environmental and cultural factors.

  • When Prison Stops Being a Deterrent: A Problem Britain Needs to Confront

    When Prison Stops Being a Deterrent: A Problem Britain Needs to Confront

    The British criminal justice system rests partly on a simple assumption: punishment discourages crime.

    For many people, the prospect of arrest, prosecution, a criminal record and imprisonment is an enormous deterrent. Losing a job, a home, relationships, freedom and reputation represents a potentially catastrophic consequence.

    But what happens when those consequences no longer frighten someone?

    This is an uncomfortable question that deserves considerably more attention in the United Kingdom.

    Prison is already dealing with persistent offending

    The problem should not be exaggerated into a claim that most offenders are indifferent to prison. The available evidence does not establish that.

    What the statistics do establish is that repeat offending remains substantial.

    Ministry of Justice figures for the April–June 2024 offender cohort recorded a proven reoffending rate of 29.6%. Approximately 25,000 proven reoffenders within that cohort were responsible for almost 131,000 proven reoffences during the measurement period. Those who reoffended averaged 5.13 proven reoffences each — the highest figure in that statistical series.

    That distinction matters.

    The challenge is not simply the number of people who reoffend. It is the concentration of repeated offending among a smaller population.

    The person with little left to lose

    For somebody with a career, mortgage, stable family life and reputation to protect, even a relatively short prison sentence can carry enormous secondary consequences.

    Another person may approach exactly the same punishment from a completely different position.

    Someone who has spent years moving between unstable accommodation, unemployment, addiction, offending and custody may perceive prison very differently. Previous imprisonment may also make the environment familiar rather than unknown.

    That does not mean such people want to go to prison. Nor should poverty, addiction or homelessness be confused with criminality.

    The narrower point is that deterrence depends partly upon what an individual believes they stand to lose.

    When conventional society has already become disconnected from someone’s life, conventional punishment can lose some of its leverage.

    Simply making prison harsher is not the obvious answer

    The instinctive response might be: if offenders aren’t sufficiently afraid of prison, make prison more severe.

    The evidence provides good reason to question that approach.

    The Sentencing Council’s review of sentencing effectiveness concluded that there is no strong evidence supporting increasingly severe sentences on the basis of general deterrence. Research on deterrence distinguishes between the severity, certainty and speed of punishment.

    This produces an important distinction for public policy.

    A hypothetical offender who believes there is only a small chance of being caught may not be greatly influenced by whether the eventual sentence is two years or three. Increasing the perceived probability that offending will actually produce consequences may matter more than continually increasing the maximum severity of those consequences.

    The objective therefore should not simply be to make people more frightened of prison.

    It should be to make persistent offending less attractive and lawful life more valuable.

    Britain’s prisons are already under considerable pressure

    This is not an abstract problem.

    There were 85,858 prisoners in England and Wales on 30 June 2026. Operational prison capacity was reported at 89,120 in June.

    Government projections published in 2025 estimated that the prison population could reach between 98,000 and 103,600 by March 2030, with a central projection of approximately 100,600.

    The prison estate therefore cannot sustainably answer every criminal-justice problem simply by demanding more imprisonment.

    Almost a quarter of prisoners were held in crowded accommodation during 2024–25.

    A system operating under those pressures must ask what it is trying to achieve with every prison place.

    Punishment and rehabilitation are not opposites

    Public debate sometimes presents two competing philosophies.

    One says offenders should be punished.

    The other says offenders should be rehabilitated.

    English and Welsh sentencing law does not actually require such a binary choice. The recognised purposes of sentencing include punishment, reducing crime including through deterrence, rehabilitation, protection of the public and reparation.

    That is sensible.

    There are offenders from whom the public genuinely needs protection, making imprisonment necessary.

    But if someone will eventually return to society, the condition in which that person returns matters enormously.

    A prisoner who leaves custody with no accommodation, no legitimate income, untreated addiction, few employable skills and the same criminal associates has been punished — but many of the circumstances associated with their offending remain.

    By contrast, someone leaving with stable accommodation, employable skills, treatment where appropriate and something meaningful to lose has acquired additional reasons not to return.

    Rehabilitation can therefore itself become a form of deterrence.

    The objective should be to create something worth losing

    Perhaps one of the most important questions in criminal justice is not:

    “How do we make prison frightening enough?”

    It is:

    “How do we make freedom valuable enough?”

    Employment matters.

    Housing matters.

    Treatment for addiction and mental illness matters.

    Family relationships matter.

    Education matters.

    The realistic probability of being caught matters.

    Effective probation and supervision matter.

    And where somebody presents a genuine danger to others, incapacitation and public protection matter.

    None of these principles requires society to excuse criminal behaviour. Understanding why punishment sometimes fails is not the same as absolving the person who committed the offence.

    Indeed, taking repeat offending seriously requires asking whether our interventions actually prevent the next victim rather than merely expressing society’s anger about the previous one.

    A criminal justice system needs more than fear

    Britain faces a difficult problem when dealing with persistent offenders for whom imprisonment has become familiar and conventional deterrents have weakened.

    But the solution cannot simply be an endless competition to devise harsher punishment.

    A functioning criminal justice system needs credible enforcement, proportionate punishment and protection of the public. It also needs credible routes back into ordinary society.

    The most successful outcome is not an offender who leaves prison terrified of returning.

    It is an offender who leaves prison with compelling reasons never to return.

    That distinction should be at the centre of Britain’s debate about prisons, sentencing and rehabilitation.